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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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From: Elroy	12/9/2021 7:48:36 PM
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The benefits of increased fertilizer prices are starting to flow through the income statements of the fertilizer makers. CF makes almost everything in fertilizer, and they make it all over the world. This announcement is a good leading indicator for little fertilizer MLP UAN, also known as the cash machine. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Raises Guidance for Full Year 2021 Adjusted EBITDA Results https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211209006057/en/CF-Industries-Holdings-Inc.-Raises-Guidance-for-Full-Year-2021-Adjusted-EBITDA-Results management currently expects the Company’s adjusted EBITDA(1)(2) for the full year 2021 to be between $2.65 billion and $2.85 billion. This represents an increase from the expected range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion that CF Industries disclosed during its November 4, 2021 conference call in connection with the release of the Company’s nine month and third quarter 2021 results. The updated range reflects continued strong global nitrogen market conditions that have supported higher-than-expected realized pricing for products sold on an index basis. Additionally, management projects higher-than-expected sales volumes through year-end driven primarily by favorable weather that has enabled the strongest fall ammonia application season in North America over the last decade. --- So they were on a $200m monthly EBITDA run rate for most of 2021, and then in Nov and Dec the monthly EBITDA increased to $375m. That's a hefty increase. Look out above.

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