Re <<Keynes was never about massive subsidies or stimulus, but small, tiny. Nothing like the gargantuan debt incurred now.
Oh, and Keynes was alive when the gold standard prevailed. Not that he cared for it.>>
A point made to me by somebody, that 'everything is a lot more stable now (12-months) than ever (10-years), for now, and FED 'tightening', fiction or otherwise, might wobble stuff
The cause(s) of reduced volatility, including range-bound gold, can / might / whatever be ...
(1) All rates near, at, or slightly below zero, and so the currencies do not move against each other except for a bit of flow and leakage
(2) CNY well-managed by PBOC / SAFE of CCP China, against a basket of currencies, largely weighed in USD / Euro / Yen, whilst adding gold as safety valve for a factory of the world. All 'kung fu death-grip' protocols tend to stabilise the planet's lesser currencies that are just printed bits of paper, until such time changes are made
Lots of theories.
In any case, whatever the overlays and underpinnings, then things do not change until they change, by any one or all players, action against reaction functions
Very exciting
Here below is Martin on gold 2022
Am unsure what he is saying, but am imagining that should FED raise rate and not tagged by the rest of the CBs (China being the exception), then short term flow would favour the USD irrespective of whatever happens midterm elections as rates trumps all, and gold naturally go weaker.
But after 2022, any sustained FED tapering / tightening / hiking would naturally lead to 2023 disaster, and ...
Should the FED demure from tapering, then conditions might also go dire / gold-friendly 2023, and ...
Let's see.
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The closing for gold in 2020 was 1895.1 and a closing here in 2021 below that level warns that we can still see consolidation into 2022. Support during 2022 will lie at 1560 and 1365. Ideally, 2022 is a turning point on the yearly array and 2023 will be a Panic Cycle. I have bucked the trend of gold analysts who have kept touting that gold rises with inflation. Nothing in my historical correlations will ever agree with that statement. Gold enters the panic to the upside ONLY when the confidence in the government collapses or declines.
It is possible that the final low for the immediate correction would come in early 2023 since that is a Panic Cycle which warns that the pattern could be an outside reversal to the upside. That would imply it is possible for 2023 to dip below a 2022 low and then flip into a slingshot to the upside.
We can see from a technical perspective, even a decline to 1142 would not be long-term bearish. Instead, that could prove to be a fantastic buying opportunity. I would not expect it to go that far, but if gold did manage to do that, it would break the back of the gold bugs who have listened to their hyperinflationary scenario ever since 1971.
The real foundation for gold will be the collapse of confidence in government. Biden is in la-la land and even CNN is starting to question his mental health. They would not do that without approval from the left. This is a warning that if Biden's polls keep collapsing, they may ditch him and rehabilitate the VP ahead of the 2022 election to try to retain control. Any way we look at this, confidence in government is collapsing. They have divided the nation by race and are doing their best to identify republicans as the anti-vaxers. There is no justification for politics to get involved in medicine for a disease that has a less than 1% death rate. CNN has been leading that charge to terrorize the public with 800,000 dead from COVID which is 0.25% of the population. There were nearly 600,000 deaths in 2019 from cancer.
This is a desperate abuse of power using medicine are a weapon politically. In Germany they are already telling people they may need boosters every 3 months to retain their human rights. There are countless people I know personally who are all fleeing Germany. Fauci is already saying you are not vaccinated unless you keep getting the boosters.
The risk of all of this is that those who complied wake up and see that there are other motives involved here that have nothing to do with health. This is a threat to the foundation of CONFIDENCE in government. With a Panic Cycle in 2022 in Politics and a Panic Cycle in gold in 2023, it looks like we are on the verge of a serious swing in public confidence. |
