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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: David N. Jones who wrote (2403)2/6/1998 6:51:00 PM
From: Dan Ross  Read Replies (3) of 18691
 
As I have stated many times....THE ISP BUSINESS at $19.95 will never be profitable.....The economics of the business stink at those levels.....However, you can see HUGE revenue increases...More and more people will jump on the net.....THAT IS A FACT.....Anyone who invests in an ISP is an IDIOT....the only thing that AOL has is advertising revenues.....

AOL used to classify them as other revenues.....It was very easy to see the growth in this line item.....NOW they have smoke screened the entire investment community and included it in service revenue or something like that....THIS IS B.S......

Mindspring, IMHO, will grow....but not make profits......too many upgrades & too much competition (who can get the infrastructure cheaper...That is a guess on my part)...RBOCs don't have to lease their own lines though.....

I would not short Mindspring....There are better shorts out there....I even gave up on AOL....it defies gravity....I know, and Steve Case knows, that the BUSINESS MODEL SUCKS!!!!!!! It BLOWS!!! But the investing public is willing to gamble that by 2010, AOL will rule the ISP business and every person in the U.S. will be on CRAPPY, SLOW, BUSY LINE AOL.....That seems to be the assumptions priced into the $98.5 price tag right now....

My theory is that your local ISP will team up with CNET and other information providers to give you great connections at a good price.....Of course with ADSL and cable modems the content will increase 5 fold on the WEB.....Just wait an see what new applications are created and how some bandwidth hogging content of now becomes just a BLIP with high-speed data transfer....

Dan Ross
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