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Technology Stocks : AMD:News, Press Releases and Information Only!

AMD 221.42

-0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: greg nus who wrote (4279)	2/6/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Matt Webster	Read Replies (2) of 6843

Call the Bottom... It seems safe to say that AMD may be on a downward trend. I am the cause of it, having bought at 20. Sorry about that. Anyway, I need to know when to sell my April 25 and July 17.5 puts. I bought them at the same time I bought the stock (two days ago). Let's try and call the bottom. I say it's probably about 16. That is close to the published book value. I imagine the bottom will occur shortly after the earnings are released. I expect them to be disappointing. People are going to ask about the Fab 25 and 30 progress, and it's not going to be impressive. If it was going to be impressive, they would have gone to the recent conference and issued a bunch of releases to that effect. So that seems like a near-term bottom. It could be higher or lower depending on how much cash they burn this quarter. If they burn a lot of cash, I will look for support at 12, which is the low in '96. They may then issue convertible notes, which will lead to further dilution, also bad for the stock price. Someone clue me in how there is any upside, OTHER than a takeover by Compaq. Maybe I should convert the shares into LEAP's, eh? Matt

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