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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp

APM 1.425

+0.4%

Nov 12 3:47 PM EST

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To: Brian Lempel who wrote (11386)	2/6/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Spots	Read Replies (2) of 12298

One answer is that when the supply/demand balance turns there will be an undersupply of heads, and that every supplier will be booked over capacity. I am not proposing this as a foregone conclusion (by no means). What I am saying is that any analysis should address this point if it's to be reasonably complete. WDC, QNTM, (probably not IBM) would want APM heads because they need them. Also, I don't buy the "unproven" part, none of these buyers are going to buy unproven heads from anybody, but APM is carrying out ongoing qualification programs, at least that much is clear (insofar as we can accept what they say anyhow). Personally I think APM will trade down near book value, which, as you correctly point out, is bleeding away, before they trade up significantly. BWDIK? Spots

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