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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing
PICK 46.18-0.3%4:00 PM EST
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (3176)1/7/2022 8:50:07 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (2) of 10587
 
Yes, I remember your post about the inventory build up. You also spoke about a 1/3 chance of recession in February. That's not gonna happen in a month.

I'm not even sure at this point how all this info would've helped my portfolio rise more than the one percent it rose this past week.

Was this inventory build up the cause of the tech wreck this week?

The stock market fell this week because the Fed is on the war path to raise rates and reduce liquidity ( i.e; its balance sheet). I've said countless times that the stock market will challenge the Fed's Hawkishness by declining 15-20%. And I expect the Fed to back off at that point and put up with higher inflation to prevent a recession and possible Armageddon.

None of this inventory build up would mean a thing without the Fed's Hawkishness. It's the Hawkishness that will kill the stock market, not the inventory build up. If the Fed remained dovish, there would be enough demand to take care of the inventory build up.

PS I expect more weakness in tech over the next couple of months as very likely. First quarter should be rough up to the first rate hike.

This tough talk by the Fed is going to produce a pretty big confrontation. I aim to profit from the encounter.
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