American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange)

ECX 1.740

+4.2%

2:29 PM EST

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To: Sparky Beardslee who wrote (1610)	2/7/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Mark Dorros	Read Replies (1) of 2841

<<I don't know how McGinnis, or any officer can make any clear definitive est. so early in their year.>> I agree. I don't think Michael's opinion of the importance of meeting the $1.20 figure is unanimous. Especially since First Call has $1.16 and Zacks (incorrectly) has $1.06. I believe I first heard McGinnis estimate $1.20 some time around August of 96. The company has held to that number all along (via McGinnis on numerous occasions and IR when asked). But there has been a lot of discussion (on AOL especially) regarding the makeup of the $1.20 and whether $1.20 reported is really equivalent to $1.20 earned from continuing operations. The reported 1997 figure will include the one time arbitration award, and the sale of a couple of subsidiaries. However, it will also include the unexpected dilution from the debentures. So we have a few unexpected events that kind of balance each other out, leaving a good chance to make the $1.20 for the year. I think the important thing is Eco's earnings per share growth rate and the likelihood of continued EPS growth - and the company's valuation relative to that expected forward growth. Much, much less important to me is whether Eco can meet an EPS number that was estimated over a year in advance. Regarding Eco disappointing... I'd also like to point out that the general market conditions and the performance of Eco's industry group and related groups just after 3Q97 earnings were announced also had, IMHO, a major effect on the price. The slide from just under 15 to below 9 was not entirely due to $0.28 vs $0.30. Stocks do not trade in a vacuum. Many other stocks in Eco's group have similar looking charts. Mark

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