| | | MRNA/NVAX
I'm a big holder --- well big bag holder - of NVAX, about whose vaccine I've posted on here. Incurring big losses in this stock, I do follow it closely. If I understand correctly in each and every test where covid vaccines are compared, NVAX is superior to the others. Even following the stock closely, I'm not sure I can summarize what that means --there's how effective the vaccines are; how long they are effective; whether or not they protect against variants. I can't offhand define/clarify effective -- protecting against seeing yourself getting Covid, preventing against serious illness (hospitalizations) if you do get Covid even with their vaccine; protecting against probability of dying; protecting against spreading the disease; protecting against side-effects minor and/or serious.
Novavax (NVAX) is old-school vaccine, a protein type like people take to prevent measles, etc. Not a messenger RNA type like PFE or MRNA's.
One result for me, is that I don't trust PFE - the company. Their trials have been done very quickly and with too few participants. Somewhere there are reports that PFE is trying to get the FDA or CDA to hold back some of their (PFE's) testing results for 55 years. Why would that be? Some of PFE's press releases are very misleading: Their new Covid pill for example works (but how effectively) and must be taken with a few days of contacting Covid. There's a youtube video that shows how many news shows that PFE sponsors--a surprising large number. Maybe in my conspiratorial mind a reason some use an ex FDA and now PFE board member, for Covid interview segments.
The knock on NVAX is that it's too late to the party. The wealthy countries (which pay more for a jab) are mostly vaccinated, and Covid is on the decline (some believe). Plus NVAX, although it's now got "approval" in some places, really can't deliver the many doses its CEO claims they can. Furthermore, although NVAX can produce their vac cheaper than MRNA and PFE can (and NVAX just needs common refrigeration, not the cold storage temps of mRNA), there are other companies claiming good results with their protein type (not ready to seek government approval though), also cheap to produce. (So possible at some point more vacc's will be produced than can be used.)
I'm still believing NVAX will within the next 60 days be getting more approvals and will be increasing shipments. Stock's been on a severe drop, and it surely feels like if the trend continues we stockholders will be totally wiped out. I believe that NVAX is so clearly the superior vaccine though, that with approvals and shipments (to the unvaccinated, to poor countries, to children, for boosters) that volatile NVAX stock will revert to a higher price and MRNA will see its stock drop much, much further as it becomes less of a desirable choice.
I've made a lot of mistakes with these covid-related stocks. Maybe one is betting too much on NVAX and another - not making a paired-trade: shorting MRNA. |
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