Gary,
You're right, I'm not well educated on your product line, in fact I'm getting in waaaay over my head here on Networking Technology specifics. I'm not an engineer. What I am though, is an investor. You are very intelligent with regard to networking, as you should be...it's your line of work. But there are serious flaws in your arguments about Yurie. The things that I take issue with you over don't really have to do with Yurie per se. Rather, your effort to diminish this past quarter's performance by Yuri, in order to promote Cisco. You keep insisting that Yurie's growth is slowing, and that is just false. In fact their growth has ACCCELERATED for 3 straight quarters. Their year over year earnings increases for the last three straight quarters was, in order: 50%,125%,and 600%. Their Annual revenue rates have also accelerated both yearly, and by far more important, sequentially, in the last 3 straight quarters. Their gross margins have increased every quarter. This was a monster quarter by any definition, and my understanding is that they could have done more.....saving some powder for next. I am completely perplexed by the stock's behavior yesterday, given these results. After talking with traders, it appears that some serious shorts started shorting it heavily yesterday afternoon. They may be anticipating a replay of last quarters indider sales after the quarterly announcement. They are making a serious mistake in my opinion, as this stock's valuation at this level trading at 1/3 of it's growth rate for the next 2 to 3 years, is just too low. It'll be like trying to hold a beach ball under water down here, and they will get squeezed. I'd anticipate a possible further dip to 19 1/2 at the lowest, if any dip at all, and then a 10 point plus run up. Technically, on a Point and Figure chart, it's completed a "Bullish Catapult" formation, which would suggest some radical upward movement in the next 30 days, but perhaps only after completing this short term downer. This is an excellent trade in the making. As for your Cisco Flack Drivel, this is standard procedure for your company. They have advanced in many instances not by merit, but by creating verbal flack for their competitors...constantly causing headwinds for smaller companies with better technologies, by telling their customers: "Don't buy from those guys with the better technology because we are working on an even better product and it will be here in 6 months, and you will have to buy ours..." The problem is that Cisco never delivers....BUT having said that, I have to give them credit because they are successful in doing this, by delaying their competitors' advances, and that is their right as the powerhouse of the industry. They know that their competitors are only as strong as their stock price, and that customers would rather buy from just one guy if they can help it. Never the less, the reason for yesterday's sell off, in my opinion has absolutely nothing to do with any of the (false) factors that you have been holding court on. You've just been frankly.....lucky that for at least a day or two, because the stock is down a little, you actually almost appear that you know what you are talking about. I don't mean to insult you, it's fine that you make conjecture that things WILL slow down in the future. But there's no way that you can cast aspersion on this quarter they just reported, logically....Tek |
