AMD 2021-Q4 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
Actual numbers: $0.92 EPS on $4.83B revenue
Q1 outlook: $5.00B ± 0.10B revenue
| Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Q1 Outlook | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.85 | $4.70B | $4.60B | | 2 | Joe NYC | $0.84 | $4.65B | $4.65B | | 3 | rzborusa | $0.83 | $4.62B | $4.33B | | 4 | gvatty | $0.82 | $4.65B | $4.35B | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.81 | $4.63B | $4.55B | | 6 | Vattila | $0.80 | $4.60B | $4.50B | | 7 | eetnoyer | $0.79 | $4.62B | $4.42B | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.75 | $4.52B | $4.29B |
What an EPYC way to complete 2021!
We all left Zacks in the dust, as they again ended up last this quarter, just as they have done throughout 2021. While we all entered more optimistic predictions, we were all well below the stellar results this quarter. Kelvin won with his most optimistic EPS and revenue, while also climbing to the top of the full-year scoreboard (see below). Congratulations, well played! Joe came in second with the closest outlook, and secured second place on the full-year scoreboard as well. Rzborusa takes silver, and also regains third place on the full-year scoreboard, after having dropped to 4th in 2020. Neolib, who uncharacteristically missed the contest this quarter (and worryingly hasn't been seen on the message board for weeks now, which is very unlike him — I hope he is well), managed to take the top spot on the scoreboard for average entries in 2021, with his three solid entries. Well done!
Thanks to all for playing, and for your general participation on this message board! And much praise and gratitude to AMD for stellar execution! I am looking forward to another great year!
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Previous Quarters 2021
AMD 2021-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
Actual numbers: $0.73 EPS on $4.31B revenue
Q4 outlook: $4.50B ± 0.10B revenue
| Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Q4 Outlook | | 1 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.73 | $4.22B | $4.44B | | 2 | Joe NYC | $0.72 | $4.31B | $4.70B | | 3 | neolib | $0.74 | $4.35B | $4.55B | | 4 | Vattila | $0.75 | $4.25B | $4.50B | | 5 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.75 | $4.40B | $4.70B | | 6 | rzborusa | $0.76 | $4.44B | $4.60B | | 7 | gvatty | $0.69 | $4.42B | $4.75B | | 8 | fastpathguru | $0.77 | $4.50B | $4.80B | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.66 | $4.12B | $4.25B |
AMD 2021-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
Actual numbers: $0.63 EPS on $3.85B revenue
Q3 outlook: $4.10B ± 0.10B revenue
| Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Q3 Outlook | | 1 | rzborusa | $0.63 | $3.92B | $4.16B | | 2 | gvatty | $0.62 | $3.78B | $4.15B | | 3 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.62 | $3.72B | $3.92B | | 4 | Joe NYC | $0.61 | $3.86B | $4.25B | | 5 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.65 | $3.90B | $4.30B | | 6 | neolib | $0.60 | $3.74B | $3.95B | | 7 | Vattila | $0.60 | $3.70B | $3.90B | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.54 | $3.62B | $3.78B |
AMD 2021-Q1 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
Actual numbers: $0.52 EPS on $3.45B revenue
Q2 outlook: $3.60B ± 0.10B revenue
| Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Q2 Outlook | | 1 | rzborusa | $0.52 | $3.33B | $3.43B | | 2 | gvatty | $0.51 | $3.35B | $3.50B | | 3 | Joe NYC | $0.54 | $3.35B | $3.45B | | 4 | Vattila | $0.50 | $3.30B | $3.40B | | 5 | engineer | $0.50 | $3.28B | $3.51B | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.55 | $3.40B | $3.60B | | 7 | neolib | $0.56 | $3.40B | $3.47B | | 8 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.48 | $3.25B | $3.55B | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.44 | $3.21B | $3.28B
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Scoreboards
Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.
AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores
| 2021 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 3 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 5 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 6 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 7 | neolib | 3 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.6614 | | 8 | engineer | 1 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.2111 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.1852 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.1556 |
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| | 2021 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | neolib | 3 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.8819 | | 2 | engineer | 1 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.8445 | | 3 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 4 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 6 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 7 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 8 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.7408 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 0.6222 |
AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores
| 2020 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 3 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.6128 | | 4 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.5812 | | 5 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.2150 | | 6 | jc474 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.2020 |
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| | 2020 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.8601 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.8171 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 4 | jc474 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.8080 | | 5 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 6 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.7749 |
AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores
| 2019 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate |
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| 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 1 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 3 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.7106 | | 4 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.6977 | | 5 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.4496 | | 6 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.3822 | | 7 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.2468 | | 8 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.2199 | | 9 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.2058 |
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| | 2019 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.9871 | | - | Zacks Estimate |
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| 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 2 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.9475 | | 3 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.9303 | | 4 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 6 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.8991 | | 7 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.8796 | | 8 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.8230 | | 9 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.7643 |
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