Thanks for your thoughts. I did make a bit on a couple of calls on QCOM I'd bought on the December rise--You may remember my recommendation on the value thread in Oct when I was unsuccessful in buying calls for $130 which would have been hugely profitable, but I finally picked up a few for $165 and $170. This morning sold the $165's for nearly a doubling of price. Yes, I am confident that QCOM is and has been a long term success. I have not sold lately because I really think they are underpriced though I have been giving to charity several lots each year so that my total number of shares has been going down. And betting on the new CEO who for the first time enthusiastically endorses the company's growth is my short term strategy. QCOM as a large group of engineers has traditionally just performed and let the market judge it's accomplishments. Now we have the new CEO acting more like most other company CEO's and promoting price/accomplishments. That, IMO, has a short term effect which could be huge since the PE is still so much lower than that of competitors. I'd say I do not worry about my large exposure to this company--it will do fine for several more years. In fact, I've just decided, since I needed to visit my charity in Los Angeles anyway, to go down to San Diego in early March for the annual meeting of QCOM which I used to attend every year.
Like you, trading in retirement accounts under US tax rules is just excellent. I can't afford to sell most of my stocks in the taxable accounts because of capital gains over many years, but normally I have batches of the same stocks in my IRA's where I can buy and sell without tax consequences. I might follow your suggestion and sell a few of my QCOM there--but, I don't want to cause I love the company.
I've really enjoyed your thoughts on different strategies and have agreed with many of them. That's sort of the problem with this investing game, isn't it? One day I think one thing and the next something else. I have to force myself to stick to the strategy I've found works for me and that means following the people and companies I respect and then buying and selling around my proxy for true value which is the 500 day moving average. Even some which are growing slowly but consistently can be profitable if I only buy when they are down and sell when they are up. Sounds a bit like your move in OPRA except you do it on a short term basis whereas I do it over years. I don't know yet if OPRA is a company I respect, but I'll hold this small investment for a year or more as I learn more about them.
As I've told you, I have accumulated a lot of cash. And I've done just what you suggested with some of it. Bought ORAN and VZ (the US's largest telephone company with a 5% dividend), and an ETF (PDBC) which trades commodities for inflationary changes, and also a gold fund which I bought without much thought at a very poor time paying nearly $36 for IAU. So those purchases are just a place where the accumulated cash can sit and I regard as outside my real strategy of buying as prices vary to below my true value for them and selling above--but again, long term rather than quickly as you've been doing. The market today is down and if it keeps going down I'll increase my budget to buy again--it's already up 100% from the basic level because the S&P index has been down to 90% of it's high. At 80% I'll double it again and take some of the cash out of one of those holding investments I listed above.
I love talking about strategy with you--but clearly get going and just can't stop. You seem to have some of the same inclination though think and act much more quickly and with more volatility than I--and that's as it should be as I'm old and settled in my thinking which now seems pretty stable though open to new ideas like using cash flow more regularly in my thinking. Thanks for the push. |
