Essential to understanding my 2022 Annual Update...
Signs the Next Rally in Gold has Begun
Another "pound the drum" input from Sprott which you can safely ignore...
The comments section is where the value lies... as it shows the nature of the split in market EXPECTATIONS in the post-Basel III world... So, cherry picking the comments to filter the dross:
GOLD is not the news,,,,,,, it is the inevitable. " GOLD is money all else is credit " ........... JPM
??Bwahahaha !!! gold will step forward . . . my arse
This metal, in spite of it's long term promise, seems to be stuck at ~$1800 an ounce regardless of how high Biden's inflation is reported to be. Something's not right with this picture ??
gold was 34.00 buicks an oz from 1935 till 1968.............. stagnation is a broad term used by people who have no concept of what ' long term " ,means.
All signs point to rally except for the price lol
Good comments below. Gold and silver, as much as I love them, are almost certainly dead. The market is rigged. Buy some to hold, but if gold and silver are ever "to the moon", so will be bullets and guns. So buy bullets and guns. They are a dual-use precious metal.
Facebook has Faceplanted, markets are deflating, the party is over.
Money will quietly move into safer things like pet rocks. All good. Hedge.
As usual, crimex says otherwise.
There is no doubt that the predators-that-be and predator-class have had a great deal of time to create mechanisms to manipulate the so-called "price" of gold and silver as measured in fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve notes.
LOL. Using TA in a rigged market.
gold rally has begun...that made me laugh so hard and fast I tinkled in my pants
What all those charts do not take into consideration...the massive manipulation of the gold market by governments, banks and large investor.
What I take away from it is... evidence of three sets of expectations, and two points of utility:
First, the group of gold bashers who don't even bother to try to deny the manipulation... and clearly expect that it will continue forever... and gold will never move again. They fail to consider... the manipulators are just as capable of screwing them... and just as hard... as they are capable of screwing the long suffering gold longs...
Second, the group of gold perma-bulls... who still fail to understand that "the markets are rigged"... and thus are constantly disappointed that "to da moon" hasn't happened when "it clearly should" in their expectations... many "chart based"... but almost all of which ignore that "it already did"... back in 2011... clearly did in the late 70's... clearly did in the early 70's when Nixon ended the "illegality" of ownership.
Third... the group of those resigned to... "it'll happen when it happens"... who get the long term view, and understand that the PERIOD of time operating in the trade... is a nesting of short term "noise" within MUCH LONGER period cyclic drivers.
The points of utility...
First... proper awareness of the reality in the periodicity... that allows correcting perspective and EXPECTATIONS to the period in which "the trade" actually occurs...
Second... awareness that "the market is rigged" meaning "TA doesn't work in a rigged market"... is wrong... it is simply EXPECTING the wrong things from it... based on how you use it... and what it is you are trying to do with the information it does provide... ? What TA is useful for... [if it is not predicting when "change in the price" will suddenly occur based on charting of the price data]... is correlating the history in the trade that does occur... with what is known about the conduct of the trade (fraud, etc.)... and its drivers... and the potential for change occurring... not in "the price of gold"... but in "the conduct of the trade".
What I see...
Metals are in a sideways channel... have been held there through the duration of the effort in wrapping up the trade that has been in progress since 2008 - 2011... I don't currently see a reason to expect change to occur that will move it outside the channel... one way or the other ? Triangle patterns are "continuation" patterns... so those expecting "it has to go up" or "it has to go down" at the end of a triangle... are wrong. It can reach the end of that triangle pattern... and do nothing. I think that's actually most likely, now... "continuation" sideways... as all the force from the prior trade is being released into the sideways channel...
Tongue in cheek I will say... I expect that pattern to continue until March... only without saying March of which year... ?
What others miss...
Is that on 1 January 2022... the trade changed... It has NOT changed to "gold to da moon"... it has changed to... a continuation of the sideways continuation pattern... only without reference to the prior accelerated patterns that have dominated the trade since 2019 - 2010. Nothing meaningful has changed in "crimex"... or "fixing" what's broken in banking ? But, what is absent in the trade, thus far at least, in 2022... is the prior pattern of purposeful "take downs" and price suppression...
Reading the tea leaves... they've now (finally) "mostly" (maybe) accomplished Basel III goals... and are now... completing the "release" portion of the Basel III enabled "catch and release" program for gold and silver...
The metals are, now, back where they were relative to the dollar and M2... back in 2000 - 2002... requiring "charts" be seen and USED in that context as a proxy for 2020 - 2022... which, back then, still meant waiting a decade for the manipulation to engineer the price into the blow off top in 2011 ?
But, "what comes next" in the trade... is NOT a function of the prior chart history, now... rather than the pairing of "reality" in the markets... ongoing dissembling about that reality... and "whatever it is" that they will have to come up with next... to engineer a NEW accommodation to the once again growing divide between "reality" and "the market"... in an environment... that they TOTALLY FAILED to properly anticipate...
Or, "this is what they intended"... and "inflation is the plan"... as I've said appears true... still meaning the disconnect between MOST PEOPLE's "expectations"... as they have been guided in error... and "reality"... is both massive and rapidly widening...
There is nothing NEW in that... which should suggest that failure, now, will result in any sudden accelerations is "recognition" that... "they got it totally wrong" ? That also happened in 2000... and 2008... ? Rinse. Repeat.
But, OUR awareness of inflation... which is different this time than prior history since the 1970's... DOES mean others future recognition of what we see now... will drive future accelerations... only as that recognition becomes established... and the "still transitory but from a higher base" crowd... are forced to capitulate.
So, future guidance... should be focused on that awareness and other... current context... and on Basel IV... rather than Basel III... and how totally disconnected from reality and totally dysfunctional that planning outline is... and what that is likely to mean for the world... as errors already imposed begin to come into contact with... forces imposing cognitive dissonance... first... and then CORRECTION ?
Failure is an option...
So, the "correct" focus of discussion... is not "price"... but "failure modes" encountered in error recognition... which is exactly what drove the "charts" in the just completed period of 2000 - 2021.
What TA is useful for... right now... is evidencing the patterns in the charts that reflect that "end of the trade" element I'm addressing...
I noted it in charting posts yesterday (?) re the inverted cup and handle patterns apparent as "an exit trade" now... The link I included there... HOW TO TRADE INVERTED CUP AND HANDLE CHART PATTERN provides a blueprint for how to SEE what the chart says... and then USE the tools TA gives you in this market... when analyzing mining stocks in particular ? Note... the period in the FSM chart I showed... is two years ? That chart says "wait for it" to me ? Not all of them do say that, however... some are less far along than FSM... some have completed the pattern the link shows... and some have BROKEN that pattern ? But, ALL the miners have that SAME pattern as a base input... OR they have something (or someone) that enables that pattern being DISRUPTED...
That's how you use TA to pick stocks in this market ? Knowing "what the trade is"... is essential to understanding... what is likely to come next... based on the completion, or not... of the prior pattern ?
I will be referencing this awareness in future posts on mining stocks and their charts... so, critical to understand it if you want to follow my thinking... see it... test it for yourself ?
Assuming there is no change occurring in "the manipulation" trade now... gives you one set of expectations out of those patterns... Assuming there IS a change that just occurred on 1 Jan... "might" justify another ?
But, with a "chart reset" occurring as one trade ends and another begins... requires changing perspective... while "the charts" haven't provided enough history to enable much in the way of evidence ?
So, for now... AWARENESS... of the trade that's been occurring... while seeing issue specific charts in CONTEXT of that awareness ?
Some stocks in the space... appear to have "corrections" they're overdue to make...
Some stocks in the space... have already completed that chart pattern I pointed out recently ?
Others... have "things going on" that insulate them from "market trends"... for a time at least ?
Juniors with nothing that suddenly prove something... still the best bet in future upside... both short term and long term...
"Fallen Angels"... that have already had their reckoning... for reasons unrelated to "market manipulations"... another category that might provide some insulation from market risks... as risks ALREADY realized... have already been realized ? Duh.
Buy low... means understanding price in MARKET context... including all of its "range" in variation from "fair value" ? So, Facebook is "cheaper" today... but it is not "low"... and, it has fallen LESS than most miners have since November... never mind since June 7th of 2021 ?
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