Mostly in sync with my own analysis...
Only one or two quibbles... in this part, in reverse order:
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Sell signal January 26th, 2022, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal January 26th, and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on January 21st. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Sell signal January 21st. On Friday, February 4th, Demand Power was Flat at 379 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 400, telling us Friday's move was weak.
When the drivers of the market trends are "neutral" or "weak"... performance in stocks tends to be more about performance in "a stock"... as issue specific factors emerge to drive this higher, that lower without interference from larger trend drivers. It is the definition of a "traders market"... requiring skill in picking particular stocks... avoiding others... While most issues will simply drift, news will tend to move specific stocks higher or lower again... in a way that doesn't really occur during an ongoing decline. And, that's exactly the behavior the miners in the market have shown since roughly the end of November to mid-December.
Gold started a Bullish Cup and Handle pattern in 2011. The Cup portion completed a year ago, and since then Gold has been declining inside the handle portion of the pattern, which is the concluding piece. While the timing for a breakout is slow and frustrating for Gold bugs, one thing we can be assured of is once it breaks out of the Handle, a powerful rally will follow, one for the ages.
Gold and silver have had two nested "cup and handle" patterns. The larger, dominant pattern... built from 1980 to completion in 2019. In silver, at least... that pattern coincided with and was amplified by a real collapse in demand in the mid 80's into 2000... as digital cameras gutted silver demand... and electronics growth was insufficient to counter the declines... until the 2010s. Today, of course, we're backing into shortages of silver that are averted, for now, only because of sustained economic stagnation. The smaller 2011 pattern... is central bank driven... entirely tied to price manipulation in the conduct of the Basel III trade, seeking to convert banks open-ended derivatives liabilities in failed "paper short" positions... into a balance sheet strength... as gold shorts were (supposed to be) covered and converted into physical long holdings that qualify as Tier 1 assets. That trade "wound down" in 2021. The horizontal channel gold and silver trade in now, sustained from January 2021... results from the first pattern ending in a strong rise in 2019... but, with that leg higher in the larger pattern coinciding with the right side of the "cup" in the 2011 pattern... it ended in pitting the "up" from the 1980 pattern ending... against the "down" of the "handle" formation of the 2011 pattern. Together... they nulll to form a sideways channel... which should last until... A 30 year cup built a 5 year handle. A (designed to be) similarly symmetric 10 year cup... ending August of 2020... gets 1.66 years... or 20 months from August of 2020 = April of 2022. Other analysis... based on the aggregate of trends in the trading patterns in a large number of individual stocks... also suggests: the end of March.
Or... just wait for the current bolly pinch to resolve... and maybe that's already happening in gold ?
Silver, monthly:
Gold monthly:
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