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Strategies & Market Trends : The Aristocrats (tm)

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Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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From: sense	2/7/2022 11:05:03 PM
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Posted yesterday on 2026 TEOTWAWKI... Gold and silver have had two nested "cup and handle" patterns. The larger, dominant pattern... built from 1980 to completion in 2019. In silver, at least... that pattern coincided with and was amplified by a real collapse in demand in the mid 80's into 2000... as digital cameras gutted silver demand... and electronics growth was insufficient to counter the declines... until the 2010s. Today, of course, we're backing into shortages of silver that are averted, for now, only because of sustained economic stagnation. The smaller 2011 pattern... is central bank driven... entirely tied to price manipulation in the conduct of the Basel III trade, seeking to convert banks open-ended derivatives liabilities in failed "paper short" positions... into a balance sheet strength... as gold shorts were (supposed to be) covered and converted into physical long holdings that qualify as Tier 1 assets. That trade "wound down" in 2021. The horizontal channel gold and silver trade in now, sustained from January 2021... results from the first pattern ending in a strong rise in 2019... but, with that leg higher in the larger pattern coinciding with the right side of the "cup" in the 2011 pattern... it ended in pitting the "up" from the 1980 pattern ending... against the "down" of the "handle" formation of the 2011 pattern. Together... they nulll to form a sideways channel... which should last until... A 30 year cup built a 5 year handle. A (designed to be) similarly symmetric 10 year cup... ending August of 2020... gets 1.66 years... or 20 months from August of 2020 = April of 2022. Other analysis... based on the aggregate of trends in the trading patterns in a large number of individual stocks... also suggests: the end of March. Or... just wait for the current bolly pinch to resolve... and maybe that's already happening in gold ? Silver, monthly: Gold monthly:

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