I don't think I have mentioned here that my Masters thesis was a metaanalysis refuting a theory about the relation between status and innovation in farmers. Let me reach back across the decades...
In any social group, somewhere between 5 and 10% will be innovators, generally higher status people who make it their business to be the first to try out new things, but the most important group for the spread of an innovation is the next 20%, again generally higher status so they can absorb the loss if the new idea doesn't work out. These folks watch to see how it goes with the innovators, and if the innovation performs, they jump on board. This is very important because they are generally the opinion leaders that the rest of the group looks to for guidance. Once the second group have proved it works, the innovation will gradually spread to everyone who can afford the costs of adoption.
Right now Verde is on the cusp of transitioning from the innovators to the early adopters. If they can make the transition, demand can quickly grow exponentially.
The spread of an innovation is very similar to the spread of an epidemic. The graph looks like a hockey stick, starting off slow, then suddenly turning upward until most people have adopted the innovation or caught the disease, whereupon the curve levels off again.
LC |
