GPL
I've pounded tables, recently, on errors resulting from focusing too closely on short term charts... or from "cherry picking" chart start points...
At GPL, I'm saying the "tail tap" a few days back is a "chart reset"... a bottom and a trend change... But, that doesn't mean there's NOT a contest that occurs in the market ? So, note that I got here by seeing the "pattern completion" in the trade based on the inverted cup and handle pattern in the weekly charts. But, now... back out from thje 10 minute to the daily chart... to see the playing field... And, what I see there... is the Red Line in the Chandelier Exit Short has not yet fallen below the price... so, the shorts have not yet capitulated... (or, just the balance in the contest between eager buyers vs badly burned sellers... who bought for $1 last February... )
I find it useful that the patterns resulting from change in reality... align with those in "the trade" on the two year chart... which I think has nothing to do with reality... or the company... GPL just lucky in the timing of the wheels coming off ?
Followers here should recognize the pattern... carved out by NEVDF recently... as mining operations contains risks that mining exploration does not. That defines the reason the Lasonde curve exists... as a dual function of the risks growing... in the mass of capital applied... and in shifting to conducting mining operations vs exploration... which has mining stock prices FALL as value increases... until the mine development period gives way to... successes in mine development... and mining operations making money... LRTNF another such "troubled" operator I've followed, recently... if one that has struggled to resolved the challenges they discovered... making NEVDF look good by comparison... in hind sight ?
Two more "chart" things worth noting there... First, just a straight read of the chart says when the price moves above that Red Line at $0.219... then it can move higher. But... the reason to have both Chandelier indicators making your charts busy... what you see in the pairing of them is that Chandelier indicators are forming a "pinch" pattern... while the Bollinger Bands are sort of cluelessly adrift... ignoring the contest occurring...
I'd say that means that the contest that is occurring, now... is occurring "within the price"... and isn't about "controlling the price" (yet) but is about "controlling the trade"... and once you see the pinch pattern in the Chandeliers resolve... THEN you will see the trade shift from "control of the trade" to "control of the price".
Those types of contests in "damaged" stocks... or BK issues... usually play out over months of dithering while bumping along a bottom... until everyone just loses interest... (JENGQ).... in a market going nowhere.
That defines the market in mining stocks generally now... sort of the point of engineering the "channel" we're in now... by pitting the two cup and handle patterns into a fight over the resolution out of the handles... as they have ? The channel... leaves traders baffled... slowly makes them lose interest... enabling accumulation by those with a need for acquisition to play out over a long, flat, bottom trade...
Oddly (?)... that "deflation trade" seems it is not really happening in GPL right now ? But, it didn't at LRTNF of NEVDF either ? Will it in the other "damaged" silver miners I'm following ?
Note the relative reversal in roles between the short term chart and the daily... in how OBV/ADL and NVI describe the trade that's occurring ? The giant X on the daily chart... in the crossover between the ADL and GBV... defines the trade reversal... and ADL is pointing to new price targets at $0.45 and $0.50... while OBV has just reversed off a bottom... and will rise to contribute to that move... once the contest over control of the trade has resolved... We might not get that long flat bottoming or channel trade to enable accumulation...
I think that's about all TA can contribute here... The rest will depend on reality... change in the price of silver... and the management of GPL getting control of what's happening... not in the market... but in their mining business. That they just did a financing for $23 million at $0.26... on November 12...probably not something to ignore in "the market drivers" now ? But, you can buy all you want below the deal price, now...
 |
