I wanted to get a sense of what might Casper ignition / takeoff staging / countdown look like using other blockchain histories as guidance.
CSPR might be 3 - 30 months away from ignition (CSPR @ 0.15) / takeoff (CSPR @ $0.58), depending on a whole lot of factors, and I suspect way closer to 3 than 12 months, with 30-months as a tail / outlier a/k/a ADA.
(1) Arbitrarily defined IGNITION moment as 10X increase in MARKET CAP from post-ICO ATL
(2) Defined TAKEOFF juncture as 10X increase in PRICE from post-ICO ATL
(3) By such definition set, CSPR requires a MARKET CAP of $510M (P ~ $0.15) for ignition. We must be quite close to ignition again, because we did it once before
(4) CSPR requires a PRICE of $0.58 (Mkt Cap at whatever) for take off. We have a wait, as in ‘wen’ ‘wen’ and ‘wen’ for some less patient of our cohort
(5) Speaking of cohort, neither MINA nor ICP achieved ignition / takeoff, and by the numbers, tougher for MINA / ICP to do ignition / takeoff, because both are burdened w/ high valuation to do 10X from the post-ICO ATL
(6) CSPR is in 10th month post-ICO
(7) HBAR achieved ignition 12 months post-ICO, and takeoff 15 months post ICO
(8) SOL ignition in 18th month post-ICO but was cold-launched (compressed air launch, then ignition) for takeoff during the 23rd month
At juncture of Ignition for HBAR and Takeoff (cold-launch) for SOL, the charts look just so
(9) ETH did ignition / takeoff during the 6th month post-ICO, as First Mover of smart chain
(10) ADA did ignition / takeoff during the 39th month post-ICO, having flat-line-struggled for a long time
(11) DOT did ignition / takeoff during the 8th month post-ICO, flamed-out, and rose again with a lot of help from sponsor with large network following
(12) LUNA did ignition / takeoff during the 23rd month post-ICO
(13) MATIC did ignition during the 19th month post-ICO, and takeoff during the 28th month post-ICO
(14) AVAX did ignition during 6th month post-ICO, and takeoff 7th month post-ICO
(15) HOWEVER, all chains experienced major test-of-faith drawdowns of greater than 50%, blood-curdling if tradFi but situation-normal in crypto-Fi, and more or less during the same time periods of the last 12 months
(16) CSPR might have 3 -30 months of countdowns until Ignition / Takeoff, w/ a lot of IFs, but never mind. Am good with the range as long as CSPR makes steady, inexorable eco system progress towards the inevitable
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