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Stock Analysis of Simulation Sci
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Simulation Sci from VectorVest ProGraphics.
The ticker symbol for Simulation Sci is SMCI. SMCI is traded on the NASDAQ.
PRICE: SMCI closed on 06-Feb-1998 at $7.40 per share.
VALUE: SMCI has a Value of $25.20 per share. Value is the foundation of the
VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based
upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and
financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in
the computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up.
When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock's
Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): SMCI has an RV of 1.70. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV
of 1.70 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock
compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings
above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00
when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted
earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be
above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when a stock has an
exemplary record of financial performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In
this case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on
future earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This information is very useful
not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation potential, but
it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low
P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above average
capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): SMCI has an RS rating of 0.94. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
RS of 0.94 is fair. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor
(one who is buying stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who
is lending money to the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and
operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key
factors used in the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization,
sales volume, business longevity and other factors are also considered, but to a lesser
degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00
to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the
average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier
than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): SMCI has an RT rating of 0.08. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00,
an RT of 0.08 is very poor. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It
analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over the last
13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once
a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the
short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price
change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point. When warranted, it will
explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00, the stock's Price is
in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): SMCI has a VST-Vector rating of 1.08. On a scale of 0.00 to
2.00, an VST of 1.08 is fair. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety
and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks with low
RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best
combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this problem.
It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock in the
VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of
Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital
application.
GRT (Growth Rate): SMCI has a GRT of 33 % per year. This is excellent. GRT
stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each
week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the
stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase
more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): SMCI has a Sell recommendation. REC reflects the
cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters
are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price,
and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately
10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's price is approximately 10%
below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and
sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: SMCI has a Stop-Price of $10.90 per share. This is $3.50 or 47.3%
above its current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for
Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices
are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according
to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is
above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): SMCI does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on
annual,regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement. Special
distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in
Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): SMCI has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is below the current
market average of 1.3 percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a
percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): SMCI has an EY of 10.88%. This is above the current market
average of 5.12%. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is
expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): SMCI has an EPS of $0.80 per share. EPS stands for
leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a
combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year
earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): SMCI has a P/E ratio of 9.20. This ratio is
computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): SMCI has a GPE of 3.59. This ratio suggests that
This ratio suggests that SMCI is undervalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure
of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio
(P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and
vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value.
The RV of 1.70 for SMCI is excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): SMCI has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor.
DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at
current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a
scale of 0 to 99 are above average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): SMCI does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest
system that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk
(RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are
classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are
below average in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): SMCI has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth is
a subtle yet important indicator of a company's historical financial performance and the
board's current outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): SMCI has a YSG-Vector of
0.00. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest
combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter.
YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the
highest YSG-Vector values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and
Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term
growth.
VOL(100)s: SMCI traded 9077400 shares on 06-Feb-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: SMCI has an Average Volume of 342740. Average Volume is 50
day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: SMCI had a Volume change of 2548.5% from its 50 day moving average
volume.
OPEN: SMCI opened trading at $5.40 per share on 06-Feb-1998.
HIGH: SMCI traded at a high of $7.60 per share on 06-Feb-1998.
LOW: SMCI traded at a low of $5.30 per share on 06-Feb-1998.
CLOSE: SMCI Closed trading at $7.40 per share on 06-Feb-1998.
% PRC: SMCI showed a Price change of -44.4% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: SMCI has been assigned to the Computer (Software) Group. VectorVest
classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
SMCI has about average safety with well above average upside potential. It reflects a
stock which is likely to give well above average, relatively consistent returns over the
long term.
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