| | | This is either a VERY DEEP bull market pull back or the beginning of a more extended bear market decline...
Just based on the chart patterns and the technicals, I have to go with the latter until I see otherwise...
This market could, of course, turn on a dime based on some major economic announcement or we could see a much deeper move over a much longer period of time...
I'm short the SOXX with some balances in place, I covered my short bonds and went long on Friday as mentioned here, and of course long gold on the signal we had...
Trying to pick the bottom tick in this kind of market is only for those who want to trade the VP model, I find that difficult except to use those VP prices as landmarks along the way as some confirmation that a market turn may be credible...
Oh sure, we'll see rallies that look like the bottom was just made, bear market rallies are always powerful and highly spirited, but they always fail by that afternoon or by the next day or so...
One of the best indicators of a coming recession is an inverted yield curve, take a look at the near term and longer term yields and how they've been trending, and look at the obvious, e.g., the bond market itself...
All this tough talk about how rates must rise to "control inflation" is all talk and no walk, at least according to the bond market and much of the other economic data...
GZ |
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