One of my New Year's Resolution is buy-and-hold and I'm long APLX, BORL, IBM and SUNW having dumped everything else last Friday.
Oh, how I hate to see a grown man cry.
Here is my unsolicited advice on your holdings:
APLX about unchanged from New Year
Positive: Company has many workers 300+
Negative: Revenue dropped last Q, despite profit. Nevertheless, I see the company small size as a major disadvantage. I'd rather hold BORL than APLX.
IBM down 7% from New Year
Long term trend is still up, but due to sheer size, it's not going to move fast. ORCL stock price action is analogous to when IBM went on sale in '94 at split adjusted price of 20. Everybody wrote IBM off. ORCL a major growth company went on sale at 50% off. For about 2 months, everybody wrote them off too. There will be more reward in owning ORCL at this point compared to IBM.
ORCL will try to fill the gap at 30 and then a possible pull back. In any case, 27 is still a good buy.
SUNW up 20%
Good
But if you like IBM or ORCL, then you need more BORL. Since you think that BI will be acquired by either of the two giants.
BORL has a breakaway gap at 7 1/4, a very good technical sign to have. The Yocam Rally which started in late '96 is on its way to test the Nov high at 12. It should break that and continue on to test the important resistance at 20. That's the old high made in early '96 with the Delphi Rally. My guess is that it will break this '96 high and then move on to test the next major resistance at 25. That is because BI is fundamentally a stronger company than it was in '96. At that point, if a buyer comes in, there will be a premium of $10 to $20 add to it. IBM will salivate at the thought of another Lotus-like success. Larry Ellison despises shrink wrapped software, and BI is making that much more palatable by spin offs such as Fronline Now!
I would dump APLX for BORL and 1/2 of IBM for ORCL or BAANF.
BAANF, I know nothing about the company, but on the TA side, it looks very strong. It broke previous high by a gap (mind you). If this gap doesn't get filled, it could be a midway gap. A midway gap is a measuring tool that its name implied.
Anyway, this advice is free and it's worth about that much too. :-)
Now back to the Yocam Rally. |
