ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (52100)	2/16/2022 9:48:16 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 towerdog Read Replies (1) of 97817

I make a distinction between investing and trading. To investing is when I feel comfortable enough that could go on long vacation and not look at a position for months. Trading is when I cannot do that. The market is still weak. It is showing signs of building a base, but it is vulnerable to shocks. So I don't see many investing opportunities. And that means I'd like to see a lot of strength before I commit to a swing trade or longer. The argument for a supercycle has some merits. It will become more clear within 6 months (likely sooner). But until then, the geopolitical risks + a global recession risk makes it coin toss. I predicted this downturn back in the fall. And at the time I also said that it will be a good buying opportunity. I still think that is the most likely course of events. But I don't like to deal with the geopolitical risks. And NTR is one of the stocks that will be affected by Russia either way. I think it has some Russian premium built into it, similar to oil but to a lesser extent.

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