I think it is reasonably clear that Putin intends to incorporate the very large and rich nation of Ukraine into his empire. It would by itself catapult Russia from a second to a first rank world power. You use a lot of history, which is nice - but, with all respect, that ship already sailed a long time ago.
Look at America’s wars, starting with Vietnam. Not a single one of them can be called a success. We caused destruction and a lot of loss of life - both ours and theirs… spent enormous fortunes - and what can we show for it? Libya is an unmitigated disaster… Iraq, Syria are not much better. Anarchy and millions of displaced people all over the place. Afghanistan ended, virtually, in an unconditional capitulation.
What would make one think that Russia would have done any better? The last serious invasion they tried - Afghanistan - led to the demise of the USSR.
In 1944, when the Soviets re-conquered Lithuania, there was a resistance - thousands of people went into hiding, and were fighting against both the Lithuanian and Russian communists. In other words, the regime. The soviet Security and their Internal affairs forces were totally brutal - when they would discover a bunker or some other location where those fighters were hiding, they would blow it up first - and ask questions later. Still, this resistance persisted into the late 1950’s - when, eventually, the Soviets gave up - and offered the fighters an amnesty if they would stop fighting and go home. Interestingly, they kept their words. Those people were left alone.
So… that was during the high point of the Soviet Empire. Their entire post WWII might couldn’t defeat a relatively small number of fighters in a tiny country of little more than a couple of million people.
So, do I believe the propaganda about them restoring the USSR? No sir, I do not. Ukraine has a rather sizable, decently armed and trained military. The Russians would never be able to subdue them. And they wouldn’t want to. What for? Ukraine has great problems with corruption, it’s a nation of 43 million, with a very poor economy - with a GDP per capita a fraction of Russia’s. |
