Tenchu’s Thoughts (Long, but with a TL;DR): Why the Brandon Should We Care About Ukraine, Part 4 - The So-Called Chess Master
(Note: There are many chess analogies in this post. If you have never played chess before, you might not get the analogies.)
I think I finally understand what Putin is up to. And it occurred to me after he gave his latest ultimatums to the West.
In short, he is more of a desperate gambler than a strategist. But that’s only because he has to be, if he wants to stay in the game.
TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read version)
Putin is playing a chess game from behind.
He may not win in the end, but he won’t have a better opportunity than now to make his move.
And the only reason why he’s considered a “chess master” is because his opponents are just plain bad.
Chess Master? Meh …
Let’s first dispel one myth: Putin might be playing chess, but I have not seen any evidence that he is a master at the game.
Everyone keeps talking about how Putin is a master chess player, that he is three moves ahead of everyone else, blah blah blah blah blah. There is ALWAYS a tendency to ascribe a higher level of intelligence to adversaries.
For example, Osama bin Laden was supposedly a smart terrorist. He was SO smart that everything that happened after 9/11 was all by his design, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
20 years later, and Al Qaeda is back in obscurity. ISIS, who had grand plans to be Al Qaeda 2.0, is also back to hiding underneath rocks. And although the Taliban is back in control of Afghanistan, even if they end up harboring the next bin Laden, they’ll be back to square one.
So. Much. Winning on the part of Al Qaeda. Not.
What Putin Did Right
This isn’t to say that Putin is a dumbass. Quite the contrary. He is indeed a genius.
He completely reversed the degradation of Russia’s military. They’re back to being a genuine threat to American military technology.
He restored pride and a sense of nationalism within the borders of Russia. I’m not sure how much the public is genuinely onboard with this nationalistic fervor, but even if it is mostly manufactured, for all practical purposes it is working to unify the country. And if average Russian citizens don’t care so much for Putin’s imperialism, I sure haven’t seen that skepticism translate into anything stopping him from moving forward with his ambitions.
He was the first to recognize American social media as a weapon to be turned against itself. With some well-placed trolls, he played the entire American media like a damned fiddle. The results speak for themselves. “Russia Russia Russia.” We chased after ghosts while Putin laughed his ass off at how good his Russian “influencers” were seen as.
And finally, his takeover of Crimea was executed almost flawlessly. And he did it while suffering what could arguably be the minimum amount of consequences that could be expected.
Short on Material
But for all of the brilliant moves Putin pulled off, there is one reality that he can’t change.
He is still short on chess pieces.
How do I know this? Because Putin himself admitted it. (And I’m not sure why, if he is supposedly such a master chess player.)
He genuinely fears the expansion of NATO. There is no denying that NATO is pushing right up to the Russian borders itself. And no country in Eastern Europe, other than Russia, is resisting that trend.
That’s why he is calling for NATO to retreat back to the Cold War era, as if that will ever happen.
It tells me that Putin is indeed short on chess pieces. He is down a rook, or two knights, compared to his opponent. Most chess players would conclude that being down that much material is almost a hopeless situation to climb out of, as the opponent can then just play a game of attrition and get to the endgame with a decisive advantage.
Playing Chess While Behind
So how do you play a game of chess when you’re behind that much? You need to press any positional advantages you have at the moment, place pressure on your opponent, and hope that he, she, or it (e.g. a computer chess engine) makes a mistake.
For instance, let’s say your opponent is up on material. But if some of your opponent’s pieces are blocked due to bad positioning or poor early game development, they will be useless until the board opens up, which could happen later.
This, I believe, is Putin’s strategy. He is now applying pressure at the right time, with a positional advantage that he may never, ever have in the future.
What are his positional advantages?
- Energy exports: Europe became too dependent on Russian energy exports, and even more so thanks to their “green energy” dreams. But this dependency won’t last because Europe will eventually build up their “green energy” infrastructure and finally get closer to the “renewable, carbon-free” promised land.
- The pussification of America: Honestly, can you say that America has as much clout today as it once had a decade ago? Of course not. Heck, the American military cares more about pronouns than about being combat ready these days. That might not last, though, since the “woke” movement in America is already faltering, so Putin can’t expect Americans to remain pussies for long.
- China: This one should be obvious. Even if China doesn’t become as strong of an ally as Putin wants, at least China can serve as a reliable check on Western influence.
- The pandemic: Western economies are still struggling thanks to the pandemic and the inflation that resulted from government intervention. There is nothing like Putin’s adversaries sabotaging their greatest weapon against Russian imperialism, which is of course, their free market economies. Of course, the pandemic cannot last forever, and inflation will eventually be tamed. It is only a matter of time.
The Risks
Now here is where I don’t believe Putin is “three moves ahead” of everyone else. This is because the risks of his brazen strategy are obvious, and it’s not clear to anyone how his plans account for every single contingency.
First of all, if Putin truly thinks that he can stop NATO from expanding, than quite honestly I think he’s nuckin’ futs. Instead, theres a good chance that countries like Sweden and Finland, who were previously on the fence when it came to joining NATO, will change their minds and join without any more hesitation.
Second, there is no way Russia can win Cold War 2.0. They depend on trade with the West much more than the West depends on trade with Russia. What will Russia do for the latest-n-greatest computer chips, for example? Smuggle them in? Ask China to make them, maybe by taking over Taiwan? Not likely. The Chinese still love their Western luxuries. They can’t afford to be on Russia’s side of Cold War 2.0.
Moreover, Russia already lost Cold War 1.0, and that was with much more than they have today. A playbook already exists for America to win Cold War 2.0, and all America has to do is follow it to the letter, because it worked before.
Third, how is Putin going to deal with Ukrainian resistance? Let’s say he takes over a huge chunk of Ukraine, or even all of Ukraine itself. AFAIK, many Ukrainians won’t be happy about that, and they can initiate a guerrilla war vs. Russia. History has shown time and time again that guerrilla wars waged by conquered people are always very expensive to fight on the part of the conquerors.
There are probably many other risks as well, most of which are unknown right now or just plain unpredictable, but everyone should expect the unexpected, even Putin himself.
How To Look Smart? Play Against Dumb People
I think it goes without saying now. Putin LOOKS like a master chess player because quite frankly, his opponents don’t even know how to play chess.
For example, look at President Brandon. Does he know what the Brandon he is doing? Does he even know WTB he is saying at times, or where the Brandon he is? He seriously has no clue.
How about Vice President Brenda? She looks like she would consistently lose a game of Candyland to a bunch of elementary school students, the way she bumbles through any speech or any interview. I’m 110% sure that no one in the world gives her any respect, because quite frankly she doesn’t deserve it. She is an affirmative action veep whose only “qualifications” were identity “checkboxes.” First woman VP, first black VP, first Asian VP, etc. All of these “checkboxes” mean nothing in this international crisis.
How about the rest of NATO? I can’t say for sure how well they are playing the game, but one thing is undeniable. They are heavily reliant upon American leadership, which of course is completely non-existent.
I also don’t know how strong or how weak the NATO alliance is these days. But it is clear that they have NOT deterred Putin in the very least, his fears of NATO expansion notwithstanding.
There Is No Better Time Than Now
Because of the risks, and because Russia’s advantages might not last, Putin is probably telling himself, “YOLO - You Only Live Once.”
I don’t think Putin will have any better chance than today to make his move, which as I type this long-winded post, he is indeed doing.
Is it smart? Will he succeed? I think his chances are slim, but his chances will never be any better than they are now.
That’s why he is doing what he is doing. Like I said, he is playing a chess game from behind.
And any competent opponent can hold the line and beat back a desperate push from a losing player. But that assumes that the opponent has any level of competence to begin with.
Which as we can tell from Brandon and Brenda, is not an assumption we can make.
Tenchusatsu |
