War in Europe
Putin is trying to recreate Historical Russia/Soviet. He will probably try to reconnect not only Belarus and Ukraine, but maybe also the Balkan and the Baltic states. Possibly even Czechoslovakia. That seems to be his end goal, his ultimate goal all along. Is it an anschluss followed by blitzkrieg that we see here? (Of course, one should take care not to think that it will be just like 'last time', but Putin is a history buff and he has surely studied previous European wars quite carefully, and drawn lessons therefrom. He will plan to repeat what has worked before.
The similarities to 1938 are eerie.
Start off annexing Belarus (where they already seem to have made an 'Austria/Sudetenland' in quiet) and then a quick dismantling of Ukraine, and thus squashing two "flies" in a quick blow. (Crimea makes it a perfect "hammer and anvil" manoeuvre; Ukraine does not seem to have a chance when you (albeit as a layman) look at it from the military drawing board (even if you should never underestimate the independence of an independent country.)) Then a couple of other satellite states; maybe all of them. Then - what? Maybe "almost NATO" countries such as Sweden and Finland. (The Balkan countries, Czech Republic and Slovakia aren't NATO either...) Maybe NATO countries? What stops them, really? Russia + China are powerful. Which leads us into...
(2) What do the balances of power really look like? In an all-out, full-scale war, is the West more powerful than the East, purely military? Purely financially?
I am worried that pacifist Europe neither wants to, nor are quite prepared to go to, war. The Russian's total disinterest in peace, and their not even bothering with a proper subterfuge, is quite scary, I think. Do they want 'total war'? It feels like the (half) democracies are facing off against (half) dictatorships once again again, as so often during the last century.
Is Ukraine Poland?
Is this September 1939? Or is it 1938? Or maybe just Ukraine 2014, or Georgia (the country, not the US state) 2008? Is this where the Russians' power ambitions are squashed once and for all, or is this World War, where Russia, China, and maybe some Middle Eastern countries etc., join Russia in an all out attack against the West? I am beginning to fear the latter, but hope to God I'm wrong. I take refuge in the fact that I usually go to worst case scenarios a little prematurely. For one thing, I had thought the US a goner when the Capitolium was stormed – thought it was going to be like the Tuileries. That didn't happen (yet anyway). Hopefully just being overly dramatic as usual...
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