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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (52667)2/25/2022 7:55:19 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

   of 97457
 
I'm not sure why but yesterday's drop and pop erased my weekly buy signals on the indexes. My formula does have some EMA weightings in some of the inputs so I guess the output was right on the edge.
Time cycle wise, the bottoming window is pretty broad but the beginning of the window opens next week. A system signal would be better to have in a week or two anyway so that it's happening during the time cycle of a turn.
Also, a reminder that the Fed hasn't even started draining yet and has actually been adding throughout this market decline. Imagine when they start pulling this out.

I was looking at my weekly charts and I can easily make a case for much lower levels longer term. There's some VERY long term trend lines, channels, forks etc that still show us extremely extended over "normal" levels. I'm not sure what could cause investors to take off their rose tinted glasses and face reality vs the buy every dip mentality so it may not happen. Then again.....
Maybe a black swan like long Covid impacting a large percentage of the population? Debt implosion as side effect of sanctions? Who knows if or why? Just look at the level and trend before 2020 and it's nowhere near where we are now. Even conservative stocks were much much lower. Even I'm having a hard time believing we could fall that low but it's right there in the charts.
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