I do agree we (the West) have been much too eager. We should've realised that EU, and EMU, was a massive threat in itself. (Building a federation-like supra-nation right next door, which grows stronger each day...) Expanding Nato at the same time – it's easy to see how that may be perceived as a threat, even an existential one at that.
Germany during 1920's-30's was quite similar -- we pushed them much too hard at Versailles (as Keynes realized while it was happening). Made them feel threatened and humiliated (dangerous combination...). Russia is obviously a far cry from where Germany post-WWI – but Russia still does seem to be a quite broken country; who knows what may happen.
However, I slightly disagree with you on the democracy part. Seems like there's broad support for EU participation in Ukraine. Also, most russian-speaking Ukrainians seem to consider themselves as Ukrainians, not Russians. There really seems to be little public support, neither in Ukraine nor in Russia, for what is going on now. (That is the view that I have gotten, although I must admit I know embarrassingly little about this despite living only half a country away from where the fighting takes place (if by 'half a country' you mean long-winded Sweden...).
Indeed – China is the new superpower on the block. Russia is forever in decline. India will be no. 2. India is the main guy to watch probably, and the other super-populated regions nearby. We don't want those turning crazy. It seems to me balance of power is somewhat even between RU + CHI and US + EU (The latter probably still having somewhat better chances 'on paper'. In real war though, especially if Russia pulls off a blitzkrieg, which almost no-one seems to consider even as a remote possibility, despite the atrocities we've witnessed last days.)
Thing is, too, these power relation things may change quite quickly, especially in times of war.
E.g., how US dethroned UK as superpower supreme during/after WWII, as they sacrificed themselves.
Or how Germany was top dog for a while before WWI, and then being completely stomped after it, before coming back ferociously strong once again just a decade later.
And before that of course France, for quite some time. And Germans. And Ottomans. And... |
