| | | I must admit, I was wrong about Putin. I assumed he had learned the lesson of Afghanistan, and would not try to conquer Ukraine. This is a huge and unnecessary gamble, which he will lose.
Putin will first lose the war, and then lose power. The Age Of Colonialism lasted 1492 to 1914. It is no longer possible for any nation (no matter how strong) to control any other nation (no matter how weak). England could not hold onto India, or even Ireland. The US lost in Vietnam and Iraq. France lost Algeria. The Serbs could not hold Croatia. And so on. Superiority in wealth, technology, tanks, airplanes does not guarantee victory.
Russia will have initial success. Maybe Putin will declare Mission Accomplished. Then the long ugly insurgency will begin. Russians will die daily, for years, till they are exhausted. Then they will leave, in defeat and humiliation, just as they did in Afghanistan. Putin will not survive this defeat. |
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