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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 386.47

-0.2%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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marcher

To: marcher who wrote (184525)

2/27/2022 9:26:46 AM

From: TobagoJack

1 Recommendation of 218200

Willie Woo

#forecast 050 : War time

Feb 26

Welcome to The Bitcoin Forecast #50.

The last two weeks BTC has continued trading with tight correlation to equities, which in itself has been very choppy as markets factored in the increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

War has broken out, and that’s been the biggest impact on BTC price. With a fast 10% drop at its outbreak and a recovery thereafter, led by equities. Price tracked market uncertainty. During unusual times like these, both technical and on-chain signals don’t tell us much about future price action, at least not in the short time frames.

Bitcoin is what I call the world’s first “risk-on safe haven”. A juxtaposition of it being “risk-on”, like a tech stock, a new technology gaining fast growth and adoption, while also having the properties of being a safe haven. Its safe haven properties include being a sovereign self-custody asset that can be taken with you in times of war or stays operational in times of a banking collapse. During the outbreak of war, we saw BTC drop due to it’s risk-on properties, we now await the first real test of how the market perceives BTC as a safe haven.

Top level summary for 26th Feb 2022 (current price $39.2k):

War time sell-off: The initial sell-off from the invasion of Ukraine looks to have been completed with BTC bouncing and retracing its 10% loss very quickly. Markets tend to be resilient to war, apart from the initial sell-off.

Structural summary: Overall demand and supply has not yet reversed. Sell pressure continues to dominate. Hodlers are selling alongside futures contracts, while short term traders (on perpetual futures markets) bought which reflects the rally we have seen. The ongoing long term sell-off sits at a time when BTC is at an extreme level of oversold compared to on-chain and exchange data fundamentals. We are in a region where reversals happen, but as yet I’m waiting for demand to come back into the market.

Price action expectation: Bearish sideways price action for coming weeks. I keep my eyes tuned for demand arriving.

All the best.

-W

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