| | | | To: Ron who wrote (5241) | 3/1/2022 2:28:04 PM | | From: Broken_Clock | of 5243 | | | https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stagflation-deck-atlanta-fed-cuts-q1-gdp-00
Of course, the only thing that was missing for this outlier forecast to become "conventional wisdom" was a collapse in growth, which as recently as mid-February seemed impossible: after all the US just had its fastest year on record, and in Q4 GDP rose a whopping 7.0%. Surely it is impossible that growth would collapse from 7% to flat, or negative, in just a few weeks?
Unfortunately, that's just the start because now that the global economy is in freefall as a result of the war in Ukraine, and inflation is about to explode to never before seen levels, the Fed is completely trapped, and the result has been a collapse in rate hike odds, not just in the US...
FED:
"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on March 1, down from 0.6 percent on February 25. After recent data releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast in first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent was more than offset by a decline in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth from -0.10 percentage points to -0.94 percentage points"
wow, from 7% to )% in one quarter. Will Joe highlight that today at SOTU? |
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