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Yes, it certainly feels more 'sincerely real' then usual
Armstrong says we 'wait for it' but he is talking about gold and not gold shares
I took some deserved loss on RSX puts, for being way to enthusiastic on closure of war, and sitting on losses in KRBN now that the planet is fearful that carbon credit is dead since the Germans in fact might have redefined armaments and munitions as ESG compliant green carbon credit generators
Thank goodness am otherwise quite long, or very long gold and gold stuffing, and the portfolio shows green for YTD and MTD and many days, and nights, 20-hrs after 24-hrs day after night after day.
In the mean time am hunkered down at home, amused at all the goings on with the kids, watching in passing the grocery deliveries, and Zooming w/ my intern, and and and ... unlike when in Cape Town, I have not yet found time to watch Netflix and such.
On market direct, I am long SPY May Call 467 and long SPY June Put 350, and watch the Russia - USA war-war, the USA - China 'trade' war, and the USA FED's war against inflation, of the three, the FED is the one to watch and the other two are distractions, at least for now.
If I can rewind the clock to say beginning of the year:
- would go all-in on palladium and crude and SBSW and DRD, leveraged, and - short all-out on QQQ and SPY and DIA and ... , leveraged.
Watching
this stream occasionally go down for I do not know why, but are 9 cameras all around the Ukraine
2022 03 02
Big Picture by a few pictures
Oil up, Russia down, everything else remain ‘muted’, ‘staging’, and perhaps, coiling, for up and down. Macro always complicates war, that which in turn complicates macro
Gold (GC), Crude (CL), Euro:USD (EURUSD), China RMB:USD (CNYUSD), Ruble:USD (EURUSD), ‘Inflation-protected 1-10 Yrs’ bonds (TIPX), DowJones Industrial Average (DJI), Russian Equity ETF (RSX), Ruble vs US$ (RUBUSD), China RMB vs USD (CNYUSD), German Equity Index (DAX), China Large Cap (FXI), Corporate bonds (HYG), and Russian Equity ETF (RSX) all tell us somethings are business as before, more or less, and everything else either wobbling or wheels already came off waiting for the impactful crash.
The story might be:
USA - China still as were, in stable ‘trade’ war (watch CNYUSD)
USA – Russia wheels coming off, with Russia losing percentage and US losing wealth (watching RUBUSD, RSX)
Crude oil (CL) making all worse, and fast, seemingly unstoppable (CL)
Gold (GC) made a small tentative move that might actually be very big, portending happening that awaits, meaning staging.
Of all of the above trajectories, they just might all go as they are going until stopped, depending on how hugely the FED impacts for how long. War is typically commodity-bullish, especially when supplementing already baked-in monetary inflation and supply-chain constrictions.
We watch Gold (GC), Crude (CL), Palladium (PA), Platinum (PL), Uranium (U-UN.TO), Silver (SI), and of course, in this new age, Bitcoins (BTC-USD), all up, ignited, takingoff, or takenoff.
Carbon Credit (KRBN), the woke wager, taking a back seat to all the other proof-of-work tokens:
Under the clear and present totality of circumstances, as BTC supposedly still a high-volatility but mature crypto with a single true use-case, alt-money, is doing just-fine, but is not gold, never mind palladium
As a young and growing crypto with many prospective use-cases, Casper (CSPR) is doing fine, still young and growing
