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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 205.50-1.5%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: Sector Investor who wrote (33917)2/8/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Sure Thing  Read Replies (2) of 61433
 
History is in favor of the longs.

Does anyone remember March 1994 when Greenspan raised interest rates
which caused the high techs to go into a tailspin? I remember around
that time CSCO reported a slowdown in their sales which caused most
of the networking stocks to plummet. They hit bottom in July 1994.
Most of the networking stocks had lost more than 50% of their value.
I remember the ANALysts and media screaming that the networker's
growth would slow to 15-20% a year.

From thoses dark days CSCO and BAY managed a spectacular comeback
over the next 12 months. ( Prices split adjusted )

--------Jul 94----Jul 95
CSCO----$7--------$19
BAY-----$13-------$32

Again, in late 1996, the ANALysts and the media had concerns about
the networking sector's growth and by April 1997 the sector had
tanked again. This time BAY, CSCO, & COMS were ready to rally.

--------Apr 97----Jul 97----Nov 97----Feb 98
COMS----$24-------$55
BAY-----$16-----------------$40
CSCO----$30---------------------------$65


Here is the historical point I would like to make. When big networking
stocks with significant market share begin their recovery rally in
earnest, they usually do not end their rally until the stock has
more than doubled in less than one year.

If Ascend does not crack $45 by mid December it will break this trend!

If you are a LONG, would you sell out before it doubles?

I think Sector Investor's bet with Tim Luke (IMHO) is a - Sure Thing -
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