It is hard to not become conditioned to expect the future will be like the past only more so...
Today, i think, that has never been less true... unless you skip over many decades in awareness in history.
In gold and silver, and particularly the shares, most investors are well inured of the long imposed collars and chains that limit their expectations in ability to range... Oil avoids those constraints... and, although it seems impossible based on a short term view of the prior history... the awareness in the history of the sequences... oil higher, volatility spikes, markets crash, KOLD soars... makes it clear that the relationship is almost immutable... for both fully practical reasons in realities and in markets being made to lean that way...
Oil will continue higher until markets crash... and so, will hold onto oil until the end nears... For now, still, oil only recovering what it had lost in the wake of events in 2020... the oil stocks, gold and silver not less, having missed out on the bull market in shares since the last crash. And, reality for now appears to be... oil is only getting started... as war is no longer a rumor... and it will have inevitable and hi-hi-highly predictable impacts in scale on the oil markets in particular... as disruption proceeds... as it must...
Much as it true in trade vis a vis China - US... fragility is not a function dependent on the pace in the flow of time... A glass vase dropped on a tile floor shatters... Whether observed in slow motion or full speed... the observation of the event... does not alter the outcome. So, unless someone catches the vase before impact... irreversible change follows... And, in trade, no one understood it or thought it might be useful to catch the vase... That same dynamic plays out in Europe today...perhaps in a more accelerated frame... but there is little variation in the nature of the event ? And, as always... positive change requires both understanding and energy as inputs... while ignorance and neglect surrender outcomes to entropy.
Stocks will struggle... unequally... see EPAM today... more or less depending on relative position vis a vis the market, PLUS relative position vis a vis the still emerging conflicts that, in spite of an (again highly predictable if) tenuous surge of optimism today... appears to me to be closer to the beginning than to the ending...
Blood in the streets... always uncomfortably literal... does not dictate an ideal in timing as "while it is still fresh"...
Russian banks ? SBRCY inching below $1 today... leaving me unsure why it clings to that threshold... given it is not possible to say what assets it still contains or what they might be worth... As a veteran in the study of broken and bankrupt bank stocks... wins are exceedingly rare... as banking is exceedingly fragile...
OGZPY... I don't think has a very clear value proposition without Europe as a customer... as the rest of the business is based on European sales subsidizing the rest...
NILSY... hmmm. A large and complex distribution of assets might represent more risk than is priced in now... but, it is on sale... more likely than the others to survive the conflict... rocks having that intrinsic quality that banks do not... one reason they used to keep rocks as pets...
The incompetence of western leadership includes that disconnection from reality... in not differentiating well between pronouncements and accomplishments, or the inertia in physical realities... I will trade accordingly.
Today... that means a small nod to the short lived in expectation following a pronouncement... the costs of which have not yet been calculated to be billed... while still sitting at the table and considering the next course... only much less has the billing been properly recognized by markets...
Commodities higher... oil leading... still leaves gold and silver outside the drivers in sequences... but, that may change as pronouncements prove themselves less useful than rocks, again...
But, as recognition is still lacking... or lagging... and as the drivers of inflation are only now being considered... the next leg in events is seeing its origins being institutionalized... and now amplified by war... and more pronouncements made without considering any impact in the accounting...
So, shortages as tied to trade disruptions already... will soon expend to include larger costs in recognition of the impacts of inflation... which most still fail to recognize or understand...
I'm looking to broaden my commodity exposure from direct holdings in oil and metals... which should help contain risks in volatility... Managed accounts are likely to be useful...
NRGU has wobbled a bit this week, as it seems it often does at transitions... but DBC doesn't seem to share the risks in single focus... maybe PDBC...
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