In the meantime
I QUOTE by clip / copy / paste
Today's Market Comments:
Here is an interesting inflation commentary Facebook post today from a local popular Diner in Pennsylvania, that shows just how bad the hyperinflation is at this time:
Fryer Oil prices:
$21 12 months ago
$35 6 months ago
$45 today
____________
Chicken Wings:
$45 a case 12 months ago
$175 a case today
____________
Take-out boxes:
$25 12 months ago
$95 today
This cost increase is the same for all of our cleaning, paper, and food we use.
If a local restaurant adds a few dollars to your meal, it's not to get rich, it's to continue to stay in business.
The above stats are reporting an inflation rate of 100% to 300+%, certainly far above the 9 to 12 percent the Department of Labor is reporting. This is reality. Hyperinflation is here. The solution for American families to maintain their current standard of living is to find additional income sources. Otherwise, standards of living will fall, and fall hard. The Master Planners have to continue to understate the true inflation rate because otherwise pensions and government entitlement payments would have to double next year, creating additional unfunded liabilities in the trillions that would bankrupt these programs. So, they choose the road less traveled - they lie.
Stocks rose sharply Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022, on lower volume. The Industrials rose the exact amount they lost a day earlier, 597 points. The S&P 500 rose 80 points. The rise was across all the major stock indices.
The stock market almost triggered a second H.O. observation Wednesday, missing because the McClellan Oscillator was not negative, after it triggered a new Hindenburg Omen Observation Tuesday. Once it triggers a second one over the next 30 days, we will have yet another contemporaneous Official H.O. The stock market crash warnings keep coming.
Stocks completed the first wave down for the new Bear market on February 24th, wave 1-down. Since then, the stock market has been operating in a corrective wave 2-up. This wave consists of three subwaves, {a}-up, {b}-down, {c}-up. Stocks completed the middle subwave {b} down on March 1st. The final subwave {c}-up occurred Wednesday, March 2nd, and once complete, that will finish the wave 2 corrective rally, which will top below the recent all-time highs in stocks.
After this top, another stock market crash will occur, wave 3-down.
We have updated charts on pages 40, 47 and 52.
The recent stock market plunge came with several Hindenburg Omens on the clock simultaneously, warning of the serious fragility of stocks, and the likelihood of a crash. These proved prescient once again. There were H.O.'s on the clock for every single previous crash over the past 36 years.
The stock market currently sits on two simultaneous "official" Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signals. The H.O.'s are warning that the odds for a full-blown stock market crash are far higher than random at this time, one on the clock through May, the other through April. March into May could be particularly ugly.
We can expect a continuing wild ride for the Stock Market in 2022. There are going to be a total of 18 Phi Mate and significant Bradley Model turn dates throughout 2022. There will be 7 turns that both cycle methods identify together. Those will likely be major turns in the stock market. By comparison, there were only 8 total Phi Mate and Bradley Model turn dates during 2021, with only two turns identified by both at the same time. We will progressively feed these forward dates to you during 2022. Trend Turns typically occur +/- a few days from these dates.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal November 26th. It rose 7 points Wednesday (out of a possible 9 points), to negative - 43.
The Blue Chip three component key indicator is on a Neutral signal. The NASDAQ 100 three component key indicator is on a Neutral signal. The small cap Russell 2000's Purchasing Power Indicator is on a Buy signal.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal February 24th, 2022 and remain there Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, March 2nd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on February 25th, 2022, and the 30-Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on February 23rd, 2022. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power rose 19 to 508 Wednesday, while Supply Pressure Fell 15 to 533, telling us Wednesday's Blue Chip rise was powerful. This DP/SP Indicator generated a Sell Signal January 18th.
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Gold fell 21.5 Wednesday, March 2nd, with Silver down 0.35, while Mining stocks fell 0.69.
Take a look at the charts on page 58. Gold and its ETF GLD have both completed sideways triangles from 2020, and Gold has broken out decisively above this triangle. Generally, the direction of prices headed into symmetrical triangles is the direction they leave, which in present case means up. Gold's initial upside price target from this pattern is 2,350, with GLD, its ETF, headed toward 215, both targets likely to be reached by the end of 2022 or early 2023. A steady rise should be evident for most of this year, with occasional corrective declines along the way higher.
Mining stocks are very close to an upside breakout from their two year declining trend-channel, shown in chart on page 64. If the HUI can break out of this channel, above 300, its next stop should be 380, with a further upside of 500.
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators triggered a new Buy signal February 7th. Miners and Metals are finally showing signs that they are tired of recent sideways action, as Gold has struggled to break up out of its "Handle" pattern. Once Gold breaks out above it, the Handle will be complete, and a clear path for much higher prices will be in place. The triangles noted above are supportive evidence that Gold could soon break out north of the handle.
Gold started a Bullish Cup and Handle pattern in 2011. The Cup portion completed a year ago, and since then Gold has been declining inside the handle portion of the pattern, which is the concluding piece. While the timing for a breakout is slow and frustrating for Gold bugs, one thing we can be assured of is once it breaks out of the Handle, a powerful rally will follow, one for the ages.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Buy signal February 7th, 2022, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal February 7th, and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Buy on February 7th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Buy signal February 14th. On Wednesday, March 2nd, Demand Power fell 3 to 426 while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 396, telling us Wednesday's decline was mild.
DJIA/SPY PPI rose 9 to negative -17.53, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 22.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 28.89 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 33.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 63.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 70.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 7 to Negative - 43, On a Sell
Demand Power Up 19 to 508, Supply Pressure Fell 15 to 533 on a Sell
McClellan Oscillator rose to positive + 83.75
McClellan Osc Summation Index -1355.24
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -177.2 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 127 New Lows 99
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Neutral signal Thursday, February 24th, 2022, and remain there March 2nd, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on March 2nd, 2022, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy on February 25th, 2022, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on February 14th, 2022. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Buy Signal Wednesday, March 2nd, and remains there March 2nd. On Wednesday, March 2nd, Demand Power Rose 23 to 538, while Supply Pressure Fell 11 to 524, telling us Wednesday's rise was powerful with substantial short-covering supporting prices.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal February 14th, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative -14.4 on Wednesday, March 2nd.
NDX 100 Purchasing Power Indicator rose 6 to 239.71 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 41.00 Slow 27.00 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 58.00 Slow 42.80 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -14.4 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Up 23 to 538, Supply Pressure Fell 11 to 524 Buy
RUT PPI Up 4 to + 182.15, on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 216.0, On a Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary |
