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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (53417)3/3/2022 4:26:09 PM
From: Sun Tzu4 Recommendations

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ajtj99
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Jacob Snyder
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JPMorgan said Thursday that it expects Russia’s economy will come to a virtual halt due to global sanctions against the country for its invasion of Ukraine.

The Wall Street firm expects Russia’s gross domestic product to contract by 35% in the second quarter of 2022 and 7% for the full year, a dramatic slowdown comparable to the financial crises of 1998 and 2008.

“Sanctions and decisions of foreign businesses to pause or halt Russia operations have led to a stall in international trade, reduced output, and supply-chain disruptions,” JPMorgan strategist Anatoliy Shal wrote in a note to clients entitled “Russia: A sudden stop.”

“The shock implies a lower potential output, which will be accompanied with a spike in prices — A credit crunch will add to pain, although there are signs that the run on banks is easing,” Shal added.

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I don't understand why JPM expects the full year assessment to be so high. On the face of it, it seems that they divided 35 by 4 and took it out of the whole year estimate to come up with the 7% annual decline number. But that does not compute with me.
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