Hungary, Poland, Croatia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania and probably one or two more joined NATO after German reunification. Russia undoubtedly considered them buffer states, significant to its security.
Given the promises made during the German reunification process (specifically by SoS Baker, who said that NATO was not moving “one inch” to the East), Russia reasonably believes that promises were broken. It is hard to dispute this.
On September 14, 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO.” It states that “[a]cquisition of full membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is the strategic course of the state.”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-as-aggressor-nato-as-objective-ukraines-new-national-security-strategy/
The above was the culmination of a long process involving slow steps taken over the last 20-25 years to get Ukraine into NATO. There were discussions, joint US-Ukrainian military exercises, etc., etc.
In my view, taking steps to get a huge country on Russia’s borders to join an alliance that specifically targets Russia, was foolhardy. Especially after a long history of broken promises made after German reunification that NATO would not go “one inch” to the East. And even more “especially,” when Russia is lead by a dictator who is clearly aware of the broken promises, who sees Russia being encircled by countries he perceives as Russia’s enemies. If Ukraine were to join NATO, I would venture to say that he’d regard it as a near-existential threat to Russia. We definitely do not want Russia, a Third World country armed with First World nukes, facing what it considers an existential threat.
If I were a Russian leader, megalomaniacal or otherwise, I’d take any present promises not to get Ukraine into NATO with a lot more than a grain of salt. A history of broken promises doesn’t do much for credibility. This is not to say that I approve of the invasion. I don’t. But in negotiations, disputes, etc., it is critically important to see things from your opponent’s viewpoint, to get into his shoes.
Given the history, I doubt very much that Putin will relent until he controls Ukraine, the last (and largest) non-NATO buffer state between Russia and the rest of Europe.
Clear sighted leadership would’ve left Ukraine alone after German reunification. Too late now.
This is going to be exceedingly difficult to unwind. I hope our leaders perform better than our previous ones, but since our present leadership is, in my view, defective, corrupt, and incompetent, anything could happen. |
