I just read an RBC report on the impact of the Russian invasion on fertilizer prices.
No surprise, they see prices going higher, especially for potash. The raised their 2022, 2023 and L-T Brazil potash price forecast to $869/tonne, $700/tonne, and $400/tonne, from $675/tonne, $350/tonne, and $300/tonne, which if accurate would certainly help both NPK's bottom line and domestic market penetration.
RBC also thinks there will a long term shift in where western countries source their potash supply away from Belarus and Russia, who will shift their sales to places like China that are not supporting the sanctions. They do not mention a little company in Brazil, as they are only focused on the majors, but you can do the math yourself.
LC |
