| | | The whipsaw in SPY and counterparty UVXY today overly predictable...
I expect "more" in reply... as the rally fails... but, its a separate trade at this point from commodities...
Biden just banned Russian oil imports... starting tomorrow, with a 45 day "wind down"...
There is ZERO ability to replace that supply... whether from Venezuela or Iran...
So, oil higher anyway.., whatever... JP Morgan upped "short term" target to $135 today...
I noted yesterday the trading in shares not keeping up with reality... as assumptions of volatility averaging were in error... others cluing in now... Energy Stocks Have Huge Upside As They Catch Up With Oil...
The divergence in a trading pattern vs value in the underlying exploits normalcy bias... oil is up, oil stocks are up... so, "that's about right"... except that sort of math in exponential functions is what most people are intrinsically unable to comprehend... and, here, overlaps... as the price is up exponentially... while the value to the company bottom line is, separately, an explodupenential function that's recently had oil leverage on the upside trading about 1 : 1 for the share value... versus a proper multiple... Reason not absent... as traders know to not count price rise chickens before they hatch into earnings as chickens... but, short term versus longer term sustained trends on "larger slope" in trajectory... with no real room for short term walking back... has left traders in the dust... IMO...
The wobble today... because the EU is doing another $2 trillion in spending ? LOL!!! Yeah... like printing more money faster is going to throttle back the commodities boom... rather than throw gasoline on the fire ?
I noted a while back... oil prices are the one thing the Fed does NOT control... But, it seems, the Fed also has no input in making Biden's economically critical policy decisions now... If you thought it was "insane" what Biden was doing in energy policy before... today it looks like "bat shit crazy" was only a warm up act...
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