With amplifications... comes the need to recognize fundamentals are... fundamental...
With the volume... the noise also gets louder...
And, in markets... that noise is deliberate... used to spoof you out of a trade with fear... or, otherwise, not random, but often composed of others errors... or, perhaps, your own if you think up and the market down.
Avoiding error in an early exit is critical... as is avoiding the risk of being forced out of a trade...
The steady hand uses a grounding in reality on longer time frames... in judging relative values in the short term... not ignoring the dynamic in the play made at the time, just as the waltz was proving fun... when Ozzie suddenly breaks into the concerto with a bit of a heavy metal lay down and sticking his tongue out at you... So, not ignoring the volatility in the dynamic... as "only" noise... when there is value and utility in seeing the pattern in the noise ?
As long as excess risk is avoided,,, so you cannot be stopped out of trades or margin called... no movement in the market... can be properly judged within the view of a single time frame.
Here's SBSW today... on a 30 minute view... and a daily chart view... not looking at price so much... but only looking at "momentum" as the KST... and how the momentum in the trade compares to "tops and bottoms" being put in... as seen in the UI (where chart peaks are bottoms, and chart bottoms are tops)
The 30 minute view... shows UI running peak to bottom in one move... as momentum says "lower"... but, as they meet up... says "screaming buy"... since price just fell off a cliff... from ~$21 yesterday... to ~$18 today... a three dollar price swing. That's bound to instill some fear in the trade ? You can see the pattern I noted earlier... bigger red candles at the open each day... crafting a megaphone in both price and volume... an amplification in noise... which usually exits in a continuation...
The daily chart view... provides some contrast... Note the full swing in the UI back in December, in a move that also moved the price by $3 with a similar full deflection of the UI from 2 to 13 as seen on the 30 minute chart above... But, way over on the right... note the deflection in the UI with today's $3 move... which did not define a new bottom... but just added a bit of breathing room that moves SBSW to being even less at a peak today... Might be useful to ask... how that full deflection from 2 to 13 in UI in December is $3... and the recent move is also $3... while moving from 2 to 3 ?
In any case... 30 minute chart screams "buy"... while the daily chart, below, says "Meh... a minor wiggle on the chart... in an ongoing uptrend". My most charitable interpretation... is someone with a lot of shares is exiting the trade way too soon...
Moves like that today in SBSW... are a good reason to maintain the balance in distribution over time of the options coverage... as options expiring this Friday might take a hit if the chart gods try to impose a lag... in the clearly ongoing move higher... I suspect they'll fail even in that, however, as the price trends are obviously not going to wind back... given the parallels in pairing of acceleration into hyper inflation and the accelerating dissolution of the globalist mercantilist trade model and it's "supply chain disruptions"... which cannot be wound back any more than price increases can, while money is printed hand over fist...
A weekly chart view... shows that, after a long pause... we're finally coming off the "handle" of the cup... and have made it back up to the rim in a short period of time... but, the KST has just barely turned back into the positive... comparable to July of 2020... Someone today appears quite desperate to contain the move within "the old pattern"... or, otherwise, think its time to take profits based on prior price patterns... without understanding that chart history... doesn't define future reality... as underpinnings in things like inflation, systemic risk, changes in market structure and and changes in prices of products... don't show up on this chart ?
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