Ken,
The demonstration reported in the NY Times was actually against Cardoso's attempt to reform the Civil Service...ie his goal to abolish these ridiculous "perks" - "jobs for life" that gov't employees have so far enjoyed....and not against Privatization, as such. Mind you, it really makes no odds, and neither is it big a deal to me. The scenes as reported are, unfortunately, common place. Every major reform Act (and for that matter every sale of strategic gov't assets) has been met with this kind of often violent protest. When you compare the Brazil we witness today to that of a few years ago, it makes you realize how far we have come. For congressmen of differing parties to adhere to the process and push the reform through DESPITE the social pain and political cost actually gives me a lot of comfort! Incidentally, my version of the article has "shoot" and not "shoot to kill" (!) - I have no hesitation in agreeing with you that I too would get very nervous about the whole process if we were to see full-blown riots with demonstrators being shot dead!...but that is certainly not the situation today, and neither do I think we will descend to that point. We should all be very aware though that the social cost of Cardoso's policies is very high, and that as such we should expect to see still further protests. Just the reality of today's Brazil !
Separately, I'm tempted to say I feel much like Steve does about the near-term prospects. Barring any fallout from the wider markets, I think TBR should find good support at $110. Next run up to the $116 mark (which has been s/t resistance) probably has us breaking through to target $120 which will then prove very hard to penetrate...for now. There is no question that it has been a bit of an underperformer in past couple of days...but to me that just says there is all the more pent-up pressure for an upward spike soon. Certainly nothing either with TBR or Brazil itself concerns me too much right now.
Good luck,
Jeremy |
