Sly, When it come to chips, in unit sales and chips, EVs, GPUs etc.. don't hold a candle to SMARTPHONES. What do you think powers the computers that serve up the web pages and host the social media services that billions of smartphones access every single day?
Instead now there is a MASSIVE race for the Chinese to have their OWN chip supply and to say FU to the US. They were going that way no matter what. I still remember when China proclaimed that they would come up with their own CPU to rival that of x86. That was way before Trump.
In any case, semiconductor manufacturing has perhaps the HIGHEST barriers of entry out of any industry. There's a reason why there are only three players left on top, and even Intel's position there was looking tenuous until Pat Gelsinger came back.
To give you an example, OnePlus (a Chinese company) just released their Nord 3 with a Chinese made CPU/GPU (Mediatek Dimensity 8100) as a follow up to Nord 2 which was using a Qualcomm CPU/GPU, that OBLITERATES the US garbage in both CPU and GPU speed, and does it at a fraction of the cost. LOL, all they did was take a bunch of existing IP, including Cortex CPU cores and the Mali GPU designed by ARM, and put them together in an SOC-fashion. I could do that in my sleep.
By the way, they don't "obliterate" anything except on paper.
Furthermore, they depend on TSMC's latest process in order to manufacture. Does China have anything to compete with TSMC? Or is China going to "acquire" TSMC the way Putin would?
They are building this MASSIVE supply, all at once, for exponential demand that will never arrive. Plus what China is doing with fabs and semiconductors will pretty much eat them alive on top of that. Just wait and see. Like I said, the market is much, much bigger than just handheld devices.
By the way, I haven't seen any proof that China will catch up to Intel, TSMC, and Samsung in terms of leading-edge manufacturing. SMIC may come close, but right now they're duking it out with GlobalFoundries (formerly AMD's "Real Men Have Fabs" manufacturing arm) for fourth place.
Personally, I'm not waiting around to see. Nor am I going to short the market like you apparently would, assuming you ever put your money where your mouth is. Instead, I'm busy riding the wave of semiconductor demand.
And from my vantage point, it's not crashing anytime soon. Of course, a global recession could kill it, but I already said that.
Tenchusatsu |
