Sly, The profits are NOT due to so much the demand but due to the obscene prices that semi companies can charge when there is short supply and high demand. Despite the self-contradiction, I see what you are arguing. You think the current chip shortage is due to temporary disruptions in the supply chain which then caused a backlog of orders.
The problem is that the supply chain disruptions have long been resolved, but the backlog in orders will still take months to fill. My startup can't even get new back-end file servers without having wait months. That's time that we can't afford.
Meanwhile GPUs for high-end desktops are going for $900, which is insane. That's all thanks to cryptocurrencies. That craze shows no signs of abetting, especially now with Russian banks getting sanctioned and world governments becoming more willing to freeze liquid assets (e.g. Beta Boy Trudeau and those oh-so-nefarious "insurrectionists").
Of course, smartphones are still in plentiful supply, but that's because the current manufacturers have prioritized smartphone SOCs over everything else. And why shouldn't they, given the high profit margins these SOCs bring?
It's a complicated picture, and yes, one of these days we'll return to an era of overcapacity. But I don't see that happening next year (once again, barring any recession that hits).
Maaaaybe in late 2024, when Intel's Ohio fabs start coming online, but that's something Pat Gelsinger will have to deal with, and Intel has been through that many times in the past. Samo samo.
Tenchusatsu |
