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Technology Stocks : YURI ( YURI SYSTEM )
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To: larry who wrote (495)2/8/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (2) of 1181
 
Larry,

Each individual should analyze all the data available to them in order to make portfolio decisions. This environment is useful for trading ideas and information, but I would not use it as a sole source for these decisions. I benefited from this discourse in that you folks suggested I look at annualized numbers. Well, I did and if I do my position is wrong... however I'm not so sure we want to annualize these rates. If I go back and look at Q1 and Q2 (which thanks to you I just went and did) growth rates quarter to quarter I think are indeed slowing... perhaps you could you check my work here.

Q2 to Q3 96 revenues grew at 29% (10.9M to 14.1M).
-------------->However Q3 to Q4 grew at 25% (14.1M to 17.6M).
Net income for Q2 to Q3 grew at 41% (1.7M to 2.4M).
-------------->However Q3 to Q4 grew at 38% (2.4M to 3.3M).
Earnings...Q2 to Q3 grew at 50% (.06 to .09).
-------------->However Q3 to Q4 grew at 33% (.09 to .12).

In fact if we go back growth rates look like:

-------Q1 to Q2------Q2 to Q3-----Q3 to Q4
Rev------30%-----------29%----------25%
Income---86%-----------41%----------38%
Earnings-50%-----------50%----------33%

So if we annualize Q4'97 through 98 we don't take this slowing into account. In order to get a real picture of 98 we should project these slowing rates of growth which, if you look at revenues, the slowdown appears to be accelerating.

Therefore as for YURI's future; I still stand by the position I took in my earlier posts (YURI is a good short-term play). Given the numbers above, annualizing YURI's quarterly revenue to arrive at expected growth rates without consideration as to future competitive and market pressures would be a mistake. Indeed, auarterly growth does appear to be slowing based on quarters in the book... not projections. And this fact coupled with possible lower priced competition aggressive competition could slow YURI's growth further.

Larry, what do you think?

Gary
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