| | | They say they have a million active duty plus 2 million reserves. I think occupation of Ukraine - at least, for any meaningful length of time - is out of the question for Russia. Ukraine is overloaded with very effective small weapons - and their resistance would be impossible to beat. So, the only thing left for Russia, realistically, is to make a deal. They are getting a little more heavy handed moving towards the next round of negotiations- likely, to make the Ukrainian side more negotiable.
Zelensky keeps demanding no fly zones. Either he doesn’t understand what that implies, or - far more likely - he doesn’t care. He wants to broaden the war - or at least acts this way. His constant demands of no fly zones are a pressure on Russia.
Europe / NATO are becoming more restless - and seemingly, militant. Otherwise, how could one explain their war games in Finland, with 30K troops and dozens of ships.
Here’s the deal. Russians see the No Nato demand as crucial for their security. From their point of view, not pushing nato back now would simply mean a guaranteed - far worse - war in the future. The fact that accepting defeat makes no sense to them - makes the situation extremely dangerous. It makes no difference whether we agree with their argument or not - it’s there.
As they say, a good settlement is one with which no one is too happy. When it’s done, I’m opening a Champaign. |
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