Answering the oil question...
In prior post commented... as writing without source... on the % change in oil markets production vs price in 2020...
The answer is here... global oil consumption in 2020 was down by 3.3%... that reduction in DEMAND causing a parallel 3.3% surplus in supply... driving oil prices to go briefly negative by a non-trivial number in dollars per barrel... That outcome, of course, was complicated by "decisions and choices" and lack of flexibility in supply chains or because of producers delayed timing in the shutdown of wells... as, for operational rather than financial reasons, shutdowns are a thing best avoided if possible... and thus delayed as long as possible... driving a "miss" in over-shooting containment capacity of storage...
Note that the 3.3% is a distributed function... spread over a year... that fails to capture the extremes reached in the dynamic by the averaging of them... but, "the base case" is made only more solid because of it...
Today, the issue is... a similarly problematic issue in "lack of flexibility in supply chains"... which cannot alter flows from here to there without having a means... and with the means we have being limited in potential and in scale relative to the scope of the problem...
But, the point remains valid... that "a chart inversion function" in oil is more than reasonable... given the removal of around 10% of world supply... and, in the event "not removed"... still "stranded" and unable to be matched to infrastructure capable of resolving movement from point of production to point of use... so, "removed" still.
Reallocation of existing flows to China, India... along with realistic expectations of prodigious "cheating" occurring... are all still significantly limited in ability to have impact "on scale"... in the near term...
Calculation of impacts... which others are avoiding discussion of now... will become timely, as it becomes the limiting factor in both "supply available" and "price"... but, don't expect any greater precision in the effort than was apparent in the event in 2020... where an "over-shoot" versus capacity in storage occurred....
But, in that instance, the over-shoot drove prices negative... And, in the current instance... the vacuum created in supply will only be able to be filled with "suppression attempts" (perhaps including deliberate demand destruction... hello, 25mph speed limits ?) until still failing into the inverse in a bidding war...
Replay the 1970's... huge price spikes... allocation failures... gas lines... which are not steel tubes that deliver gas... but lines of people waiting in queue in their cars hoping to be able to buy gas before they run out...
They're all pretending that this is not what's coming... and will feign shock and surprise... and faux anger at the oil companies for "causing this"... when it does happen... because... they wanted it... and they got it...
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