The sum-total of all fears is all-fear, and momentarily, done until once again undone
(1) The Wall Street tradFi numbers tell us that the Ukraine war is over (crude, palladium backed off), FED being insincere about fighting inflation everywhere, and by the looks of it all, FED matters much more than the war.
(1-i) Bitcoin (BTC @ -11.25% YTD) is not gold (GC @ +5.48% YTD), especially during risk-off by FED and / or war, even as bitcoins might be involved at the Ukraine / Russia tactical level, whereas gold is globally strategic. IOW, BTC might be a risk-on / risk-off ‘asset’ slightly better than Nasdaq but quite a bit worse than gold.
(1-ii) Oil (CL @ up 60+% and backed off to +28.07% YTD) matters still when a big global supplier goes off-line
(1-iii) Palladium (Pa up ~55% and backed off to +25.2% YTD) matters much as people resort to stealing auto tail piped requiring Russian Pd supply chain integrity
(1-iv) Corporate high-yield bonds (HYG @ -5.00% YTD) says FED matters just as war involving two large global suppliers matter
(1-v) Nasdaq (QQQ @ -14.5% YTD) says risk-off, and not too much to do with the war but much about the FED, that which also affects BTC.
finance.yahoo.com
(2) Willy Woo https://willywoo.substack.com says BTC stabilised, maybe, looking it, watch & brief (YTD down 11.25%)
(3) CryptoFi tells us LUNA is way ‘better’ than Nasdaq, and almost as good as gold.
(3-i) CSPR coingecko.com down 50% (0.124519 => 0.062149)
(3-ii) MINA coingecko.com down 51% (3.78 => 1.86)
(3-iii) ICP coingecko.com down 41% (27.76 => 16.33)
(3-iv) HBAR coingecko.com down 36% (0.3160 => 0.201626)
(3-v) SOL coingecko.com down 51% % (175.85 => 85.90)
(3-i) ETH coingecko.com down 27% YTD (3,785 => 2,745)
(3-vi) ADA coingecko.com down 40% (1.37 => 0.825613)
(3-vii) DOT coingecko.com down 36% (29.77 => 19.02)
(3-viii) LUNA https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna down 1% (89.51 => 88.77)
(3-ix) MATIC coingecko.com down 43% (2.54 => 1.44)
(3-x) AVAX coingecko.com down 35% (114.33 => 74.37)
(4) What drove CSPR during Q1 must include the BTC-macro (risk-off) and coming unlock, and even so CSPR did okay relative to cryptoFi market. Am good with CSPR YTD, and looking forward to rest of 2022 for CSPR. Good that the yield of CSPR was not negatively effected given certainty of rock-solid Casper domain monetary policy.
(4-i) Continuing to feel vague about tradFi but still liking gold and all anti-fragile / anti-inflation stuff, edible, flowing, as well as the metallics
(4-ii) BTC definitely proved a planetary use-case
(4-iii) I quote myself, that,
‘chaos is a gift,
crisis a partner,
volatility friend,
lonely path right way,
survive to survive another day,
let us coat our blessings today,
so that we might again tomorrow’
... and just so Message 33759950
My concern? Taking Russia off line and pushing 6th largest (by PPP) domain into default is unlikely to be an one-episode drama. |
