Pancho, re: Y2K. It is a good time to be cautious with Y2K<g>. I'm only short ZITL & ACLY ... and watching DDIM.
RE: CHRZ, MAST, VIAS, PTUS, IMRS, ALYD, et al ...
Last year, I suggested:
1) 1998 would be the peak year for revenues for Y2K. This will surprise the Y2K pessimists!
2) The first hint will be front page stories in local newspapers. This is happening now. My target for shorting the industry is still Q3 '98. But we need to stay flexible.
3) We need to watch revenue growth very closely (I'm following a normalized set of Y2K providers). We can ignore earnings, cash flow, stock price, etc (or we would short them all now<G>) ... just watch revenue.
I will update the thread when IMO we are getting close.
Regards, Bill |
