| | | >>> The same map as two weeks ago. Russia is effectively at stalemate.<>
The Russians never said one word about any timeline for the war. Everything we hear related to timing of the war are someone’s assumptions. I was absolutely certain that there would be no attempt to overrun the country for the purpose of taking it over (like in the theories about the restoration of the empire). Imo, there will be no serious attempts to occupy Kiev - that would be bloody for both sides — with no political purpose to be accomplished.
The Russians are gradually degrading the Ukrainian military capacity - blowing up factories used to fix warplanes, weapons depots, at least one NATO training base. The idea - the way it looks to this particular armchair general down here - is to force negotiations, apply pressure to make Ukraine more negotiable… to make Ukrainians realize that the West isn’t trustworthy, that it isn’t interested in them enough to risk their own survival.
They will want first and foremost - NO NATO. Also - recognition of the annexation of Crimea, independence of the Donbas “republics”. I suspect that - now, having paid such a heavy price - they will demand some territory - especially the land connection to Crimea.
The war was totally avoidable. Ukraine was badly misled. They believed the West - and did NOT believe Russia - which was saying for many, many years that they will not accept that country’s membership in nato.
You know… a few days ago, I was watching the last episode of the fifth season of a Netflix show - “Peaky Blinders”. It’s about a successful family of gangsters during the post - WWI period, in Birmingham. Someone questioned Tommy Shelby - the head of the family - about all those multiple incidents when he had shot and killed people. His answer almost made me fall off the chair — “It’s the only way to make them listen to you”.
I know… it places Russia in the shoes of a gangster. But I think it’s broader - it’s part of our civilization (and maybe in part, of human nature). We are paying billions to psychiatrists and various therapists every year - to have someone to listen to us - who would pay attention and try to understand. |
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