Bill is somewhat ticked off that Nokia chose another operating system for the Nokia 9000 and is in the process of rolling out the Java smarphone with the Sun crowd. But the fact of the matter is that Win CE is a clumsy, truncated version of the unloved Windows system. I'd much rather see Nokia stick with Java and Geoworks than jump in bed with Gates in the future. Maybe they will hedge their bets somehow...
The infrared connectivity is the latest tech craze in the GSM field. New Nokia phones have this IR link at the end of the phone, so if you for example receive a fax with the phone you can point at a printer and get a hard copy. Or you can communicate with your computer and send e-mail uploaded from the PC and stuff. I know it sounds quite unnecessary and useless, but it is hooking the interest of the bleeding edge customers and driving the 6100 media blitz. The series has now received smash reviews in "Mobil" and "TM", two influential Nordic tech magazines and the next issue of "Connect", the German leader of European mobile magazines will run a big article.
Wait lists for the phones have appeared in several Northern European markets. The previous major product introduction, the 3110 created much less splash. Nokia has succeeded in hammering in the notion that this is a generational shift among phones, not just another handheld.
Which brings us to the bad news. I just can't see a phenomenal result from the next Thursday's quarterly announcement. People were putting off phone purchases before Christmas, because 6100 was already creating a buzz. Nokia was selling off inventories of its older models to clear out the warehouses with steep price cuts. After Ericsson's recent more or less triumphant announcement, how could Nokia match the investor expectations under these conditions? I'm very bullish about 1998. But much less so about the fourth quarter of 1997.
The Friday's Qualcomm debacle will heighten the anxiousness of the American investors, who tend to be volatile (to put it mildly) about Nokia in the best of circumstances. Nokia's major subcontractor, Elcoteq just shocked the Helsinki bourse with the announcement that it will not be proftable in the ongoing quarter. The signs are bad. Nokia has a much stronger and more diverse base than Qualcomm, it is not tied into the fortunes of individual countries or even product sectors to such an extent. But the East Asian slowdown may impact the handset growth rates in the last quarter enough to trigger a stampede, especially if the American investors draw a quick comparison to Qualcomm. I would expect this will be short-lived, though. The groundswell of the infrastructure orders, the 6100 introduction and the sheer magnitude of the profit windfall of 1998 (about 2 billion dollars) shoud help investors make the distinction between a speculative tech stock and a global leader.
Tero
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