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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 157.09-1.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (4761)2/9/1998 8:15:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Mark that's some great stuff. Darn if I can be of much help. I agree with you on Infrastructure. However let me just add one thing about fab building.

There is definitely a tendency here to do what the herd does. So if A builds a new fab B feels it must as well. If A does not then B might postpone as well - esp. if they're in the same industry and both are hurting just as badly (take any DRAM companies for A and B in SEA and I think you can make a case that neither will build). I think because of the huge losses in the last couple of years and the higher currency effects the Koreans have said no mas . The Japanese similarly appear to be shelving plans for now.

So how badly will the lack of DRAM construction affect the semi-equips. Well this is a bad example but a company that is heavily DRAM dependent WJ gave a seriously bad q. report recently. True WJ is not an AMAT but still it did show how the barrel is almost empty in SEA as far as DRAM spending goes.

My big concern is that DRAM is a sizable chunk of spending and if this slows down, irrespective of the other areas increasing spending, the semi-equip companies with DRAM dependence are in trouble over the next few months.
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