Hey everyone, hope all had a good weekend, despite the launch delays. This really sucks, but should present yet another buying opportunity. I would rather see the birds up, but I suppose like those old Heinz ketchup commercials used to say, "Good things come to those who wait." I hope Heinz' Law of Ketchup applies to satellites as well.
Here are all of Readware's comments up to this point from the 6th to present.
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Subject: Re: READWARE
Date: Thu, Feb 5, 1998 21:25 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980206022500.VAA26334@ladder03.news.aol.com>
On your question: the call processing software is a minefield. There is not just one company involved in this software-- Stanford Telecommuncations is the lead firm for satellite sofware, but I do not know the company's fundamentals. I don't even know if it is an exchange company, I believe I mentioned that SunMicroSystems (that trades on the Over The Counter Company) will be the software manager for Globalstar. Also, there is Sprint, that is
probably the master software company for overseas calls processing. Telephone communications software, however, is not my field at all. As always, there is the Worldcomm company (that also trades on the Over the Counter system)-- watch them.
As for the subscriptions of G*: we are up to 1.8 million subcribers that we can count-- up from 1.25 million. As Inmarsat comes to market this summer, there will be more work done on that.
I mentioned that fixed site customers (as opposed to mobile) are impossible to identify since that information goes through the various soverign ministries, not local telcos. Any estimates on that would be a pure guess, and I do not think there is any consultancy that can give any numbers for that. I have mentioned that the Chinese Ministry of Post and telecommunications is committed to some 900 municipilities for fixed site terminals at last count,
and the government of India is in the process of working with Hyundai-Globalstar in India for fixed site infrastructure. I can tell you that Iridium World's demand is higher than originally calculated by them. This I know as a certainty, and Kyocera looks behind in their handset production as a result for Iridium.
In April Globalstar will be holding its annual shareholder meeting. At that time I believe more concrete tabulations will be available for Globalstar shareholders. As far as my comments on demand vs. supply go: demand is higher than my last comment. A G* shareholder should be concerned that the supply is just not going to be there to handle the demand. It may be a case of an expert management team, namely, Loral's, of having understimated what the
market is. Asia Cellular (AceS) is already talking of 2 million custmers in their orbit in five years, and Hughes Space is saying that the ICO system (Hughes is building their MEOs) is going to be insufficient for the market they see. The vicious fights for frequency before the FCC are very telling to someone in satellites as to how massive the demand for telephony frequency is. Hughes is trying to open the V band now, and the fights that Iridium is
having with ICO, and what they say about each other...
But I think the Globalstar chairman will be able to address those number inquiries at the meeting for his shareholders in April.
Subject: Re: READWARE
Date: Thu, Feb 5, 1998 23:36 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980206043601.XAA18360@ladder03.news.aol.com>
The answers to #s 1,2 and 3 are yes; the answer to #4 is complicated because the 3rd generation will have far more services than the first. Part of the reason for a 2nd generation upgrade so soon is b/c G* is upgrading their service level. If you look at their frequency requirements for the 2nd generation you can tell that they are upgrading. A 3rd generation is going to need many more LEOs, and that will have to start emerging sometime in 2004. If
the demand is as expected, the third generation will not be sufficient to handle the customer base because the second generation will start obsolescing. Unless, G* starts it in 2002. I do not believe the 3rd generation is scheduled for 2002, however.
I think that it is not practical to look at Wall Street "numbers" right now. I do not believe the Wall Street telecommunications analysts "go in the field" for satcom telephony numbers, but simply repeat what they have read. It is probably not far off in saying that their travels are mostly to vacations spots, and not the areas of the world where G*, Iridium, satellite consultancies, and the like have gone to identify the real markets for telephony.
Having said that, I think it is best to ask the Globalstar management in April what they are seeing as far as the market for their product goes. Iridium is going to start giving indications in April also. I know DDI in Japan has already said they expect to be in the black for Iridium now in 1999 or, at the very latest, 1st qtr 2000.
Subject: 12 AM EST
Date: Fri, Feb 6, 1998 00:04 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980206050400.AAA22692@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Wind shear at the Cape is 23mph, 11 mph below the launch rules. Boeing has not stayed the launch as of this time. The skies are more tranquil at this time than they were last night. It looks like we are actually at T minus 08:22:00 and counting this time.
Subject: Re: rescheduled for Sat
Date: Fri, Feb 6, 1998 14:09 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980206191000.OAA19840@ladder02.news.aol.com>
As it looks now Saturday is out-- can't fly a satellite through clouds-- danger of possible lightning effect-- and tomorrow is expected to be cloudy. Also the surface winds will be a bit on the gusty side, while atmospheric winds look tomorrow to be calmer than last night. Just the reverse of yesterday. But Sunday on the computer model looks to be relatively sunny, with both upper and surface winds quiet. While Boeing will probably look for a
Saturday launch, Sunday looks more likely as a real possibility.
Monday looks like a launch scheduling conflict, so if Sunday misses, it looks like Tuesday is the next date.
Subject: Re: a note on Japan
Date: Tue, May 5, 1998 01:25 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980207180701.NAA00653@ladder02.news.aol.com>
My only add to Valuer's quite erudite response is this: One must keep in mind that Japan could go into SouthEast Asia on a constellation acqusition binge before Loral does. It just might, and there are indications that it is moving in that direction.
Japanese industry is hell-bent on moving into the 5th generation business by 1999, and is also hell-bent on doing in the 5th generation satellite business what it did in television and VCRs. Japan missed out on the 4th generation boom because they had dirigistically made a decision in early 1980 to concentrate Japanese industry on autos, and let that play itself out. Unfortunately for Japan, America's automobile might came to the fore and it appears
that the Japanese "10-year" plan backfired-- they lost the automobile production race to the United States.
Now Japanese manufacturers-- Mitsubishi, Hundai, Nippon, NEC, (NEC and Nippon are different companies) have shifted their vent to the 5th generation. That is why I suggested obliquely a few days ago that Loral in fact might be looking for parters "further east" with whom to move into South East Asia. I have in mind distinctly a European partner.
The satellite situation in SE Asia as of this date is an imponderable. The countries truly hardhit are Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea. From all appearances, and I am no economist (I don't think anyone is), Korea looks to be first to recrudesce. Japan and Korea, however, are centruies old financial enemies, and Japan may just look to see if it can move into the SouthEast market to pick up orbital assets before Korea revives, and before American firms
can partner elsewhere to buy the same assets.
99.99% of Americans of course are unaware of this development in the Japan mindset. To satellite shareholders, this is not just "inside baseball". I know that Loral is, as also is Hughes. Lockheed, and Motorola. All will recall that Japan tried to move into the US auto industry when that industry was at its trough in the late 70's, as I noted above: this time it is going to try to cut off at the pass American entry into SE Asia's constellations as
well as take on America in the 5th generation race. Japan knows it lost the auto race. It does not plan on losing the 5th generation race. It will lose that race, but I am just commenting on the mindset of Japan today.
Subject: Re: What do launch delays cost?
Date: Tue, May 5, 1998 01:31 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980207181300.NAA12414@ladder03.news.aol.com>
No-- the cost of a launch delay is borne by Boeing. But if the launch goes up Sunday, and I am 99% certain that it will (I just spoke to the AirForce on that-- the 45th Spacewing, as you probably know, is the one that gives the official meteorological indications), Boeing will have lost no money.
Subject: Re: a note on Japan
Date: Sat, Feb 7, 1998 13:25 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980207182501.NAA03114@ladder02.news.aol.com>
I was citing Hyundai as the Korean power with whom Japanese telecommunications and electronics powers will fight for SE Asia property. Do not be surprized if it partnered in the next six months with Chinese Telecom or Hong Kong Telecom for ventures in SE Asia satellite services.
Subject: 11:30PM
Date: Sat, Feb 7, 1998 23:47 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980208044701.XAA09000@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Winds have been very gusty, ranging from 12 to 30 mph today on the surface, and as high as 35 mph in the upper atmosphere, altho at 10PM the upper winds were at 20. The AirForce weather office at 10PM Cape Time does report that their computer model still forecasts expected below launch rule winds for tomorrow morning. While the Cape skies are relatively clear right now, there is concern about cloud density as the dawn breaks. Dense clouds are bad for
a launch b/c of the possible "lightning effect". The AirForce weather office still indicates a "go" for the launch, although a dense cloud cover would prevent a launch from occurring. I am just reporting what the weather office said as for the launch's likelihood of occurrence-- still 90%. Earlier in the day, in the morning, the cloud cover was not an issue for the computer model.
As for the comment on FRTK before-- Daimler Aerospace makes SpaceSystemsLoral's antennae.
Subject: Reschedule
Date: Sun, Feb 8, 1998 10:02 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980208150200.KAA07304@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Boeing reports G* rescheduled for Friday, pending Iridium launch Tuesday which they have now apparently rescheduled back one day from the 11th.
Subject: Re: More on Zenit
Date: Sun, Feb 8, 1998 12:14 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980208171400.MAA14742@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Happy-- so you know: Zenit-2 has been completely refabbed since the 1992 launch failure-- I believe that is five years ago. Or is it that time is frozen for you? And further, the Zenit-2 launch data do not include classified military payloads. But I would not expect you to know that.
Subject: Re: a note on Japan
Date: Sun, Feb 8, 1998 12:48 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980208174901.MAA01451@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Regarding your comment on who I would have in mind as a partner for further SE Asia consolidation with Loral given the current problems with constellation funding there-- I have no firm knoweldge whatsoever on who it would be. I used the term "obliquely" to indicate that. By :further east" I simply meant that no Asian partner seems available for a partnering. If there is to be any reorganization among partnerships in
SE Asia, it does not appear that it will be initiated with current Asia satellite services providers. I have positively no idea what the workout in SE Asia satellite services reorganization will be. Japanese electronics powers have been moving towards entering into 5th generation satellite production, and this is well known. Given that this shows their interest in this high growth area, one might infer that some companies in Japan might take a close
look at the SE Asia situation as a possible entry point today into a more lucartive communications area two, three years from now. Already, e.g., Mitsubishi has announced a partnering with Skybridge; Sharp Electronics has also publicy stated a $10 million investment with Skybridge. Toshiba has already contracted with SSL for production of certain satellite components. Also, Hitachi is working on advanced semiconductor miniaturization for
communications satellites. So you can see the trend-- these are recent developments bearing out the grounds for the possible inference that Japan could be looking for SE Asia satellite servicing partnerships-- if the price is right.
But as I said, I have absolutely no idea whatsoever what partnership interests would emerge away from SE Asia companies (i.e., "further east") for consolidation of service providers there. The Japanese developments in satellite interests of the past nine months make their candidacy for possible partnering in SE Asia a reasonable hypothesis. The information on Japan's recent satellite manufacturing developments is available in a number of the
satellite publications.
Subject: Re: More on Zenit
Date: Sun, Feb 8, 1998 13:04 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980208180400.NAA03731@ladder03.news.aol.com>
(1) The 12-sat launch is a first time occurrence. (2) Bernard Schwartz has stated publicly on conference calls with Wall Street instutional money managers that any G* satellite launch mishaps would result in a three month delay. (3) The payload is fully insured for all launches, but more important is the timing of services question for shareholders. (4) The Russian launch vehicles have been designed for military payload and throwweight in excess of
the weight of their current commercial payloads. (5) In a conference call, Bernard Schwartz stated that Zenit-2 had offered to launch 24 satcoms at one time-- but Globalstar management felt this was, in his words (if I recall exactly) "pushing the envelope".
It is a good idea to check with Globalstar management for the information on #5.
One of the posts recently suggested here that Zenit-2 would save Loral money. I do not believe anyone outside of the interested parties knows the cost of the Zenit-2 launch to Globalstar. So I am not sure anyone outside of the interested parties-- G* and Zenit-2-- could say with certainty if the launch is a lower cost/satcom deliverer. Given the extreme care with which the Boeing launch has obviously been handled, one can make the reasonable
assumption that cost of the Zenit-2 launch had nothing to do with the decision to use it. But one obviously would have to get the answer to that from Globalstar management.
Subject: Re: a note on Japan
Date: Sun, Feb 8, 1998 13:16 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980208181601.NAA05563@ladder03.news.aol.com>
I certainly did not mean to stoke embers on Japan's entry into the satcom market. I simply was commenting on its recent satcom developments and how that might enable one to infer a possible interest on their part in the recent SE Asia developments. As for the opinion on Japan and the 5th generation race: I simply meant that Japan would not have a dominance in it when I offered the opinion that they would not "win" it. It is well known they sought to
win the auto manufacturing race, but, unlike autos, you cannot "dump" satellites on to the market. That is, as you know, a far more controlled area.
As for technology, while Japanese electronics companies do tend to master miniaturization, satellites need more than miniaturization to be serviceable. Wattage is another area of consideration, as well as expertise is thermal diffusion, and production of compounds that make the satcom not only "lighter" (tensile), but also more impact stabilized and electromagnetically tolerant. The 5th generation satellites are to be more powerful (greater wattage,
more heat dispersion capabilities) and longer lasting (increase in electromagnetic tolerance due to new stabilizations) as a result of technology upgrading, but miniaturization of semiconductors is only part of the story for the 5th generation.
Subject: Re: Launch Delay
Date: Sun, Feb 8, 1998 19:29 EST
From: Readware
Message-id: <19980209002901.TAA24762@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Previously scheduled "non commercial" activity for Monday is what contributed to the G*'s relaunch forward to Friday, altho the wind gusts may have caused the same. Last May there were high winds for a number of days prior to the Iridium World "inaugaral" launch at Cape Canaveral, and El Nino had not been in effect then. The El Nino caused rains in Southern California, however, have been Noachian in dimension. Orbital is supposed to launch
tomorrow from here and Iridium Tuesday. We'll see. Those birds may need an umbrella. |
